Troponin-only Manchester Acute Coronary Syndromes (T-MACS) decision aid: Single biomarker re-derivation and external validation in three cohorts
File version
Version of Record (VoR)
Author(s)
Carlton, E
Sperrin, M
Lewis, PS
Burrows, G
Carley, S
McDowell, G
Buchan, I
Greaves, K
Mackway-Jones, K
Griffith University Author(s)
Primary Supervisor
Other Supervisors
Editor(s)
Date
Size
File type(s)
Location
Abstract
Background: The original Manchester Acute Coronary Syndromes model (MACS) 'rules in' and 'rules out' acute coronary syndromes (ACS) using high sensitivity cardiac troponin T (hs-cTnT) and heart-type fatty acid binding protein (H-FABP) measured at admission. The latter is not always available. We aimed to refine and validate MACS as Troponin-only Manchester Acute Coronary Syndromes (T-MACS), cutting down the biomarkers to just hs-cTnT. Methods: We present secondary analyses from four prospective diagnostic cohort studies including patients presenting to the ED with suspected ACS. Data were collected and hs-cTnT measured on arrival. The primary outcome was ACS, defined as prevalent acute myocardial infarction (AMI) or incident death, AMI or coronary revascularisation within 30 days. T-MACS was built in one cohort (derivation set) and validated in three external cohorts (validation set). Results: At the 'rule out' threshold, in the derivation set (n=703), T-MACS had 99.3% (95% CI 97.3% to 99.9%) negative predictive value (NPV) and 98.7% (95.3%-99.8%) sensitivity for ACS, 'ruling out' 37.7% patients (specificity 47.6%, positive predictive value (PPV) 34.0%). In the validation set (n=1459), T-MACS had 99.3% (98.3%-99.8%) NPV and 98.1% (95.2%-99.5%) sensitivity, 'ruling out' 40.4% (n=590) patients (specificity 47.0%, PPV 23.9%). T-MACS would 'rule in' 10.1% and 4.7% patients in the respective sets, of which 100.0% and 91.3% had ACS. C-statistics for the original and refined rules were similar (T-MACS 0.91 vs MACS 0.90 on validation). Conclusions: T-MACS could 'rule out' ACS in 40% of patients, while 'ruling in' 5% at highest risk using a single hs-cTnT measurement on arrival. As a clinical decision aid, T-MACS could therefore help to conserve healthcare resources.
Journal Title
Emergency Medicine Journal
Conference Title
Book Title
Edition
Volume
34
Issue
6
Thesis Type
Degree Program
School
Publisher link
Patent number
Funder(s)
Grant identifier(s)
Rights Statement
Rights Statement
© 2016. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/ This is an Open Access article distributed in accordance with the Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial (CC BY-NC 4.0) license, which permits others to distribute, remix, adapt, build upon this work non-commercially, and license their derivative works on different terms, provided the original work is properly cited and the use is non-commercial. See: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/
Item Access Status
Note
Access the data
Related item(s)
Subject
Clinical sciences
Nursing
Health services and systems
Public health
acute myocardial infarct
cardiac care, diagnosis
diagnosis
Persistent link to this record
Citation
Body, R; Carlton, E; Sperrin, M; Lewis, PS; Burrows, G; Carley, S; McDowell, G; Buchan, I; Greaves, K; Mackway-Jones, K, Troponin-only Manchester Acute Coronary Syndromes (T-MACS) decision aid: Single biomarker re-derivation and external validation in three cohorts, Emergency Medicine Journal, 2017, 34 (6), pp. 349-356