Long-run reversal in commodity returns: Insights from seven centuries of evidence

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Zaremba, Adam
Bianchi, Robert J
Mikutowski, Mateusz
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2021
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Abstract

We perform the longest study of long-run reversal in commodity returns. Using a unique dataset of 52 agricultural, industrial, and energy commodities, we examine the price behavior for the years 1265 to 2017. The findings reveal a strong and robust long-run reversal effect. The returns of the past one to three years negatively predict subsequent performance in the cross-section of returns. The effect is robust to extensive subsample and subperiod analysis, and not driven by statistical biases, extreme events, or macroeconomic risks. Our findings support the explanation that the long-term reversal originates from supply and demand adjustments following price changes. Finally, the phenomenon is elevated in more volatile commodities and in periods of high return dispersion.

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Journal of Banking & Finance

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133

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© 2021 Elsevier. Licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International Licence (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/) which permits unrestricted, non-commercial use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, providing that the work is properly cited.

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Applied mathematics

long-run reversal

commodity markets

early commodity prices

long-term historical returns

mean reversion

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Zaremba, A; Bianchi, RJ; Mikutowski, M, Long-run reversal in commodity returns: Insights from seven centuries of evidence, Journal of Banking & Finance, 2021, 133, pp. 106238

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