Towards Spatio- Temporal Aware Traffic Time Series Forecasting

Loading...
Thumbnail Image
File version

Accepted Manuscript (AM)

Author(s)
Cirstea, RG
Yang, B
Guo, C
Kieu, T
Pan, S
Griffith University Author(s)
Primary Supervisor
Other Supervisors
Editor(s)
Date
2022
Size
File type(s)
Location

Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia

License
Abstract

Traffic time series forecasting is challenging due to complex spatio-temporal dynamics-time series from different locations often have distinct patterns; and for the same time series, patterns may vary across time, where, for example, there exist certain periods across a day showing stronger temporal correlations. Although recent forecasting models, in particular deep learning based models, show promising results, they suf-fer from being spatio-temporal agnostic. Such spatio-temporal agnostic models employ a shared parameter space irrespective of the time series locations and the time periods and they assume that the temporal patterns are similar across locations and do not evolve across time, which may not always hold, thus leading to sub-optimal results. In this work, we propose a framework that aims at turning spatio-temporal agnostic models to spatio-temporal aware models. To do so, we encode time series from different locations into stochastic variables, from which we generate location-specific and time-varying model parameters to better capture the spatio-temporal dynamics. We show how to integrate the framework with canonical attentions to enable spatio-temporal aware attentions. Next, to compensate for the additional overhead introduced by the spatio-temporal aware model parameter generation process, we propose a novel window attention scheme, which helps reduce the complexity from quadratic to linear, making spatio-temporal aware attentions also have competitive efficiency. We show strong empirical evidence on four traffic time series datasets, where the proposed spatio-temporal aware attentions outperform state-of-the-art methods in term of accuracy and efficiency.

Journal Title
Conference Title

2022 IEEE 38th International Conference on Data Engineering (ICDE)

Book Title
Edition
Volume
Issue
Thesis Type
Degree Program
School
Publisher link
Patent number
Funder(s)
Grant identifier(s)
Rights Statement
Rights Statement

© 2022 IEEE. Personal use of this material is permitted. Permission from IEEE must be obtained for all other uses, in any current or future media, including reprinting/republishing this material for advertising or promotional purposes, creating new collective works, for resale or redistribution to servers or lists, or reuse of any copyrighted component of this work in other works.

Item Access Status
Note
Access the data
Related item(s)
Subject

Time-series analysis

Data mining and knowledge discovery

Persistent link to this record
Citation

Cirstea, RG; Yang, B; Guo, C; Kieu, T; Pan, S, Towards Spatio- Temporal Aware Traffic Time Series Forecasting, 2022 IEEE 38th International Conference on Data Engineering (ICDE), 2022, pp. 2900-2913