2017-09: Subprime mortgages and banking in a DSGE model (Working paper)

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Ricci, Martino N.
Tirelli, Patrizio
Griffith University Author(s)
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Rohde, Nicholas

Naranpanawa, Athula

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2017
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40 pages

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Abstract

Can a DSGE model replicate the nancial crisis eects without assuming unprecedented and implausibly large shocks? Starting from the assumption that the subprime crisis triggered the nancial crisis, we introduce balance-sheet eects for housing market borrowers and for commercial banks in an otherwise standard DSGE model. Our crisis experiment is initiated by a shock to subprime lending risk, which is calibrated to match the observed increase in subprime delinquency rates. Due to contagion of prime borrowers and to the ensuing adverse effect on banks balance sheets, this apparently small shock is sufficient to trigger a decline in housing investment comparable to what was observed during the nancial crisis. The adverse effect of sub-primers risk on commercial banks' agency problem is a crucial driver of our results.

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Copyright © 2010 by author(s). No part of this paper may be reproduced in any form, or stored in a retrieval system, without prior permission of the author(s).

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Economics and Business Statistics

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Subject

E32 - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

R31 - Housing Supply and Markets

G01 - Financial Crises

E44 - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

Housing

Mortgage default

subprime risk

DSGE.

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