Prolegomenon: Globalisation, Law, and Lawyers in a Time of Crisis

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Flood, John
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2019
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Abstract

Nikolai Kondratieff, a Russian economist in the 1930s, believed the world’s economy operated on long 60-year cycles (“K waves”).1 According to his analysis we are in the fifth such cycle, which runs from 1980 to 2030. However, each cycle ends in crisis that spans the last 15 years or so of the cycle.2 We are presently entering this crisis phase which seems to have begun with the refugee wave that struck Europe in 2015.3 The Economist, rather more dramatically, describes this phase as the “Kondratieff Winter” and argues for a longer 20-year winter beginning in 2008 with the great financial recession.4 If the economy, and indeed capitalism, are in crisis, then it is legitimate to ask if globalisation is also at risk. For in many ways globalisation is the crystallisation of the centripetal economic forces of the last thirty years. Is globalisation doomed as populist autocrats preach nationalism and retrench? Are we entering a world where the rules-based order is quietly forgotten and sidelined? Despite the forecasts of the new right in politics,5 we live in a world that is not uneasily untied and although globalisation might change its persona, it won’t die and disappear.

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The Global Lawyer

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Studies in Human Society

lawyers

global

globalisation

legal education

Kondratieff

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Flood, J, Globalisation, Law, and Lawyers in a Time of Crisis: Introduction to The Global Lawyer by Kate Galloway, Melissa Castan, and John Flood (LexisNexis, 2019 Forthcoming), 2019

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