Estimated health benefits, costs, and cost-effectiveness of eliminating industrial transfatty acids in Kenya
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Aminde, Leopold
Wanjau, Mary Njeri
Cobb, Laura
Veerman, J Lennert
Wu, Jason HY
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Tokyo, Japan
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Abstract
Background and objectives: There is an urgent need to eliminate industrial trans fatty acids (iTFA) from the food supply globally to reduce the burden of ischemic heart disease (IHD). Many countries in Africa have not yet implemented policies targeting the elimination of TFA. The objective of the current study was to model the potential health gains and costeffectiveness of a mandatory limit of iTFA in Kenyan foods. Methods: Markov cohort models were used to estimate the effect on IHD burden and cost-effectiveness of a mandatory iTFA-limit (≦2% of all fats) in the Kenyan food supply. Intake of trans-fatty acids was assessed using the 2019 Global Burden of Disease Study. The IHD burden attributable to iTFA was calculated by comparing the current level of iTFA intake to counterfactual settings with complete elimination of iTFA intake. Policy implementation costs (including government spending for legislation and monitoring, and industry spending for product reformulation), avoided IHD events and deaths, health-adjusted life years (HALYs) gained, and healthcare costs saved were estimated over 10 years and lifetime of the Kenyan population. Cost-effectiveness was assessed by calculation of incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER) using net policy cost and HALYs gained (both with 3% discount rate). Results: Over the first 10 years, complete elimination of iTFA intake was estimated to prevent 1,622 (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 1,495; 1,752) IHD deaths and 14,852 (95% UI: 13,664; 16,061) IHD events, and to save 98 million USD (95% UI: 90; 106). The corresponding estimates over the population lifetime were 39,812 (95% UI: 36,420; 43,262), 94,362 (95% UI: 86,080; 102,831), and 437 (401; 475). Policy implementation costs (government plus industry) were estimated to ∼7.4 million USD over the first 10 years, and ∼8.3 million USD over the population lifetime. The intervention was estimated to be cost-saving regardless of the time horizon and findings were robust across several sensitivity analyses. Conclusions: Findings support legislating a mandatory limit of iTFAs as a cost-saving strategy to avert substantial numbers of IHD events and deaths in Kenya.
Journal Title
Annals of Nutrition and Metabolism
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IUNS 22nd International Congress of Nutrition – Abstracts
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79
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Suppl. 1
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Medical biochemistry and metabolomics
Nutrition and dietetics
Science & Technology
Life Sciences & Biomedicine
Endocrinology & Metabolism
Nutrition & Dietetics
Policy
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Marklund, M; Aminde, L; Wanjau, MN; Cobb, L; Veerman, JL; Wu, JHY, Estimated health benefits, costs, and cost-effectiveness of eliminating industrial transfatty acids in Kenya, Annals of Nutrition and Metabolism, 2023, 79 (Suppl. 1), pp. 396-396