Review of the limitations and potential empirical improvements of the parametric group method of data handling for rainfall modelling
File version
Version of Record (VoR)
Author(s)
Shaeri, Saeed
Senevirathna, STMLD
Griffith University Author(s)
Primary Supervisor
Other Supervisors
Editor(s)
Date
Size
File type(s)
Location
Abstract
This study furthers the utilisation of the parametric group method of data handling (GMDH) in assessing the possibility of rainfall modelling and prediction, using publicly available temperature and rainfall data. In using ordinary GMDH approaches, the modelling is inconclusive with no clear consistency demonstrated through coefficients of determination and analysis of variance. Hence, an empirical assessment has been undertaken to provide an explanation of the inconsistency. In doing so, state variable distribution, their classification within the fuzzy context, and the need to integrate the principle of incompatibility into the GMDH modelling format are all assessed. The mathematical foundations of GMDH are discussed within the heuristic framework of data partitioning, partial description synthesis, the limitations of the least-squares coefficient of determination, incompleteness theorem, and the necessity for an external criterion in the selection procedure for polynomials. Methods for modelling improvement include the potential for hybridisation with least square support vector machines (LSSVM), the application of filters for parameter estimation, and the combination with signal processing techniques, ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD), wavelet transformation (WT), and wavelet packet transformation (WPT). These have been investigated in addition to the implementation of enhanced GMDH (eGMDH) and fuzzy GMDH (FGMDH). The inclusion of exogenous data and its application within the GMDH modelling paradigm are also discussed. The study concludes with recommendations to enhance the potential for future rainfall modelling study success using parametric GMDH.
Journal Title
Environmental Science and Pollution Research
Conference Title
Book Title
Edition
Volume
Issue
Thesis Type
Degree Program
School
Publisher link
Patent number
Funder(s)
Grant identifier(s)
Rights Statement
Rights Statement
© The Author(s) 2022. Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made.
Item Access Status
Note
This publication has been entered in Griffith Research Online as an advanced online version.
Access the data
Related item(s)
Subject
Time series and spatial modelling
Meteorology
Science & Technology
Life Sciences & Biomedicine
Environmental Sciences
Environmental Sciences & Ecology
Ensemble empirical mode decomposition
Persistent link to this record
Citation
Lake, RW; Shaeri, S; Senevirathna, STMLD, Review of the limitations and potential empirical improvements of the parametric group method of data handling for rainfall modelling, Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 2022