Using a Bayesian approach to evaluate the accuracy of economies of scope: Examples from Australian public universities

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Zhang, L-C
Syu, J-J
Worthington, AC
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Weber, T

McPhee, MJ

Anderssen, RS

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2015
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Gold Coast, AUSTRALIA

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Abstract

The point estimate of economies of scope is a nonlinear combination of estimated coefficients from an empirical model. This estimate usually involves out-of-sample predictions when calculating the separate costs (as a part of the calculation of economies of scope). These difficulties make it hard to give the precise prediction and to calculate the standard deviation of this estimate along with its confidence intervals. In this paper, we demonstrate methods for constructing the confidence interval for economies of scope to allow researchers to draw inferences from estimated economies of scope. We review the common approaches such as delta method or bootstrap adopted by previous studies. In contrast to the above approximation methods, this study also proposes an alternative method, Bayesian approach, to produce full predictive distribution for this measure with the posterior distribution. To demonstrate these three approaches, we use a balanced panel data including 37 Australian public universities over the period 2003-12. Our Bayesian approach uses a quadratic cost function with two outputs. Estimates of economies of scope will be calculated with the sample data and estimated parameters from the model.

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21ST INTERNATIONAL CONGRESS ON MODELLING AND SIMULATION (MODSIM2015)

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© 2015 Modellling & Simulation Society of Australia & New Zealand. The attached file is reproduced here in accordance with the copyright policy of the publisher. For information about this conference please refer to the conference’s website or contact the author(s).

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Econometric and statistical methods

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