The short-term effect of heat waves on mortality and its modifiers in China: An analysis from 66 communities
File version
Author(s)
Zeng, Weilin
Zhou, Maigeng
Wang, Lijun
Rutherford, Shannon
Lin, Hualiang
Liu, Tao
Zhang, Yonghui
Xiao, Jianpeng
Zhang, Yewu
Wang, Xiaofeng
Gu, Xin
Chu, Cordia
Griffith University Author(s)
Primary Supervisor
Other Supervisors
Editor(s)
Date
Size
File type(s)
Location
License
Abstract
Background:Many studies have reported increased mortality risk associated with heatwaves. However, few have assessed the health impacts at a nation scale in a developing country. This study examines the mortality effects of heat waves in China and explores whether the effects are modified by individual-level and community-level characteristics. Methods: Daily mortality and meteorological variables from 66 Chinese communities were collected for the period 2006-2011. Heat waves were defined as =2 consecutive days with mean temperature =95th percentile of the year-round community-specific distribution. The community-specific mortality effects of heat waves were first estimated using a Distributed Lag Non-linear Model (DLNM), adjusting for potential confounders. To investigate effect modification by individual characteristics (age, gender, cause of death, education level or place of death), separate DLNM models were further fitted. Potential effect modification by community characteristics was examined using a meta-regression analysis. Results: A total of 5.0% (95% confidence intervals (CI): 2.9%-7.2%) excess deaths were associated with heat waves in 66 Chinese communities, with the highest excess deaths in north China (6.0%, 95% CI: 1%-11.3%), followed by east China (5.2%, 95% CI: 0.4%-10.2%) and south China (4.5%, 95% CI: 1.4%-7.6%). Our results indicate that individual characteristics significantly modified heat waves effects in China, with greater effects on cardiovascular mortality, cerebrovascular mortality, respiratory mortality, the elderly, females, the population dying outside of a hospital and those with a higher education attainment. Heat wave mortality effects were also more pronounced for those living in urban cities or densely populated communities. Conclusion: Heatwaves significantly increased mortality risk in China with apparent spatial heterogeneity, which was modified by some individual-level and community-level factors. Our findings suggest adaptation plans that target vulnerable populations in susceptible communities during heat wave events should be developed to reduce health risks.
Journal Title
Environment International
Conference Title
Book Title
Edition
Volume
75
Issue
Thesis Type
Degree Program
School
Publisher link
Patent number
Funder(s)
Grant identifier(s)
Rights Statement
Rights Statement
Item Access Status
Note
Access the data
Related item(s)
Subject
Environmental and Occupational Health and Safety