Population ageing and productivity: A survey with implications for New Zealand
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Mark Holmes
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This paper critically evaluates the effects of population ageing on labour productivity with particular reference to New Zealand. A number of potential long-run mechanisms are considered: complementarity of workers by age, age-specific productivity of individuals, new technology discoveries and adoptions, and fertility and human capital investments. Potential short-run channels include the 'second demographic dividend', changes in industry composition, and incentives to seek labour-saving technologies. Simulations tentatively suggest that workers could become more complimentary by age which would boost labour productivity. The magnitude of this effect on living standards could entirely offset the projected 12% fall in the support ratio over the next 40 years. The most effective policies for mitigating the national economic burden of ageing are policies to boost labour participation of older workers and to boost immigration.
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New Zealand Economic Papers
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48
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2
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© 2014 Taylor & Francis (Routledge). This is an Accepted Manuscript of an article published by Taylor & Francis in New Zealand Economic Papers on 04 Apr 2014, available online: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/00779954.2013.874397
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Economic theory
Applied economics
Macroeconomics (incl. monetary and fiscal theory)
Other economics