Artificial intelligence for the prediction of all-cause mortality and readmission in heart failure: a meta-analysis of twenty studies

No Thumbnail Available
File version
Author(s)
Gupta, Aashray
Zaka, Ammar
Mutahar, Daud
Mustafiz, Cecil
Gorcilov, James
Abtahi, Johayer
Kamalanathan, Harish
Tan, Sheryn
Hains, Lewis
Sharma, Prakriti
Sharma, Srishti
Ragunath, Priyyanca
Kovoor, Joshua
Stretton, Brandon
Mridha, Naim
et al.
Griffith University Author(s)
Primary Supervisor
Other Supervisors
Editor(s)
Date
2024
Size
File type(s)
Location

Chicago, USA

License
Abstract

Background: Accurate risk prediction of heart failure patients is essential for identifying high risk patients, developing targeted treatment strategies and prognostication. Existing traditional risk scores offer modest discriminative value, and rely on rigid predictor variables. A form of artificial intelligence, machine learning (ML) models provide alternate risk stratification that may improve predictive accuracy. This systematic review and meta-analysis compared machine learning models with traditional risk scores for predicting all-cause mortality and readmission in patients with heart failure. Methods: PubMed, EMBASE, Web of Science and Cochrane databases were searched until 1st May, 2024 for studies comparing ML models with traditional statistical methods for prediction of all-cause mortality and hospital re-admission following an index admission with CHF. The primary outcome was comparative discrimination measured by C-statistics with 95% confidence intervals between ML models and traditional methods in estimating the risk of all-cause mortality and hospital readmission at 30 days. Results: Twenty observational studies were included (558,233 patients). The summary C-statistic of the top-performing ML models for all-cause mortality was 0.76 (95% CI, 0.72-0.80), compared to traditional risk scores 0.71 (95% CI, 0.68-0.74). The difference in C-statistic between ML models and traditional methods was 0.05 (95% CI 0.04-0.06, p<0.05). Of all included studies, 6 models were externally validated. Calibration was inconsistently reported. Conclusion: ML models demonstrated superior discrimination of 30-day all-cause mortality and hospital readmission for heart failure patients when compared to traditional risk scores. Before integrating into clinical practice, further research is required to overcome methodological and validation limitations.

Journal Title

Circulation

Conference Title

Abstracts From the American Heart Association's 2024 Scientific Sessions and the American Heart Association's 2024 Resuscitation Science Symposium

Book Title
Edition
Volume

150

Issue

Suppl_1

Thesis Type
Degree Program
School
Patent number
Funder(s)
Grant identifier(s)
Rights Statement
Rights Statement
Item Access Status
Note
Access the data
Related item(s)
Subject
Persistent link to this record
Citation

Gupta, A; Zaka, A; Mutahar, D; Mustafiz, C; Gorcilov, J; Abtahi, J; Kamalanathan, H; Tan, S; Hains, L; Sharma, P; Sharma, S; Ragunath, P; Kovoor, J; Stretton, B; Mridha, N; Bacchi, S, Artificial intelligence for the prediction of all-cause mortality and readmission in heart failure: a meta-analysis of twenty studies, Circulation, 2024, 150 (Suppl_1), pp. A4146070