Which Historical Forecast Model Performs Best? An Analysis of 1965–2017 French Presidential Elections
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Bélanger, Éric
Feitosa, Fernando
Turgeon, Mathieu
Feitosa, Fernando
Turgeon, Mathieu
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2022
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Abstract
Various scientific modeling approaches exist to forecast elections. Historical (or vote-function) models predict election outcomes based on past patterns of voter behavior and rely on the use of aggregate-level historical data about political and economic factors (Bélanger and Trotter 2017).
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PS: Political Science & Politics
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55
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4
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Bélanger, É; Feitosa, F; Turgeon, M, Which Historical Forecast Model Performs Best? An Analysis of 1965–2017 French Presidential Elections, PS: Political Science & Politics, 2022, 55 (4), pp. 692-696