Are we entering an era of concatenated global crises?
File version
Version of Record (VoR)
Author(s)
Biggs, Reinette Oonsie
Dakos, Vasilis
Scholes, Robert J
Schoon, Michael
Griffith University Author(s)
Primary Supervisor
Other Supervisors
Editor(s)
Date
Size
File type(s)
Location
License
Abstract
An increase in the frequency and intensity of environmental crises associated with accelerating human-induced global change is of substantial concern to policy makers. The potential impacts, especially on the poor, are exacerbated in an increasingly connected world that enables the emergence of crises that are coupled in time and space. We discuss two factors that can interact to contribute to such an increased concatenation of crises: (1) the increasing strength of global vs. local drivers of change, so that changes become increasingly synchronized; and (2) unprecedented potential for the propagation of crises, and an enhanced risk of management interventions in one region becoming drivers elsewhere, because of increased connectivity. We discuss the oil-food-financial crisis of 2007 to 2008 as an example of a concatenated crisis with origin and ultimate impacts in far removed parts of the globe. The potential for a future of concatenated shocks requires adaptations in science and governance including (a) an increased tolerance of uncertainty and surprise, (b) strengthening capacity for early detection and response to shocks, and (c) flexibility in response to enable adaptation and learning.
Journal Title
Ecology and Society
Conference Title
Book Title
Edition
Volume
16
Issue
2
Thesis Type
Degree Program
School
Publisher link
DOI
Patent number
Funder(s)
Grant identifier(s)
Rights Statement
Rights Statement
© 2012 by the author(s). Published here under license by the Resilience Alliance. The attached file is reproduced here in accordance with the copyright policy of the publisher. For information about this journal please refer to the journal’s website or contact the author[s].
Item Access Status
Note
Access the data
Related item(s)
Subject
Environmental management not elsewhere classified