Central venous catheter infections: building a causal model with expert domain knowledge to inform future clinical trials

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Schults, Jessica A
Wu, Yue
Snelling, Thomas
Perez Chacon, Gladymar
Ball, Daner
Charles, Karina
Marsh, Julie
McLeod, Charlie
Yasuda, Hideto
Rickard, Claire M
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2025
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Abstract

Aim: Central venous catheters (CVCs) are essential for long-term therapies but carry a high risk of central line-associated bloodstream infections (CLABSIs), which significantly impact patient outcomes and healthcare costs. This study aimed to develop a causal model for CLABSI using expert knowledge to guide future clinical trials and prevention strategies. Methods: We constructed a directed acyclic graph (DAG) informed by literature and expert knowledge elicitation. A multidisciplinary team of clinicians, including infectious disease and vascular access experts, participated in interviews and workshops to refine the DAG, resulting in a final model with 30 variables representing CLABSI development. Findings: The expert-elicited DAG identified two main pathways, patient-related and CVC-related, each contributing to CLABSI risk. Variables and relationships in the DAG highlighted key patient characteristics, CVC management practices, and overlapping factors influencing infection. This model serves as a novel framework to understand CLABSI causation and supports trial design by identifying confounding factors, causal pathways, and meaningful endpoints. Conclusions/implications: Our causal DAG provides a structured representation of CLABSI risk factors, which may support the design of clinical trials examining interventions to reduce CVC-related infections. By clarifying causal mechanisms, the DAG can enhance the specificity of endpoints and improve the rigor of prevention strategies.

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Antimicrobial Resistance & Infection Control

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14

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1

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© The Author(s) 2025. Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

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Schults, JA; Wu, Y; Snelling, T; Perez Chacon, G; Ball, D; Charles, K; Marsh, J; McLeod, C; Yasuda, H; Rickard, CM, Central venous catheter infections: building a causal model with expert domain knowledge to inform future clinical trials, Antimicrobial Resistance & Infection Control, 2025, 14, pp. 116

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