Modeling COVID-19 and Its Impacts on US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) Detention Facilities, 2020
File version
Author(s)
Coombs, Daniel
Skarha, Julianne
del Pozo, Brandon
Rich, Josiah
Taxman, Faye
Green, Traci C
Griffith University Author(s)
Primary Supervisor
Other Supervisors
Editor(s)
Date
Size
File type(s)
Location
License
Abstract
U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) facilities house thousands of undocumented immigrants in environments discordant with the public health recommendations to reduce the transmission of 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19). Using ICE detainee population data obtained from the ICE Enforcement and Removal Operations (ERO) website as of March 2, 2020, we implemented a simple stochastic susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered model to estimate the rate of COVID-19 transmission within 111 ICE detention facilities and then examined impacts on regional hospital intensive care unit (ICU) capacity. Models considered three scenarios of transmission (optimistic, moderate, pessimistic) over 30-, 60-, and 90-day time horizons across a range of facility sizes. We found that 72% of individuals are expected to be infected by day 90 under the optimistic scenario (R0 = 2.5), while nearly 100% of individuals are expected to be infected by day 90 under a more pessimistic (R0 = 7) scenario. Although asynchronous outbreaks are more likely, day 90 estimates provide an approximation of total positive cases after all ICE facility outbreaks. We determined that, in the most optimistic scenario, coronavirus outbreaks among a minimum of 65 ICE facilities (59%) would overwhelm ICU beds within a 10-mile radius and outbreaks among a minimum of 8 ICE facilities (7%) would overwhelm local ICU beds within a 50-mile radius over a 90-day period, provided every ICU bed was made available for sick detainees. As policymakers seek to rapidly implement interventions that ensure the continued availability of life-saving medical resources across the USA, they may be overlooking the pressing need to slow the spread of COVID-19 infection in ICE's detention facilities. Preventing the rapid spread necessitates intervention measures such as granting ICE detainees widespread release from an unsafe environment by returning them to the community.
Journal Title
Journal of Urban Health
Conference Title
Book Title
Edition
Volume
97
Issue
4
Thesis Type
Degree Program
School
Publisher link
Patent number
Funder(s)
Grant identifier(s)
Rights Statement
Rights Statement
Item Access Status
Note
Access the data
Related item(s)
Subject
Sports science and exercise
Health services and systems
Public health
Science & Technology
Life Sciences & Biomedicine
Public, Environmental & Occupational Health
Medicine, General & Internal
General & Internal Medicine
Persistent link to this record
Citation
Irvine, M; Coombs, D; Skarha, J; del Pozo, B; Rich, J; Taxman, F; Green, TC, Modeling COVID-19 and Its Impacts on US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) Detention Facilities, 2020, Journal of Urban Health, 2020, 97 (4), pp. 439-447