Development of a predictive model for Ross River virus disease in Brisbane, Australia

Loading...
Thumbnail Image
File version
Author(s)
Hu, W
Nicholls, N
Lindsay, M
Dale, P
McMichael, AJ
Mackenzie, JS
Tong, S
Griffith University Author(s)
Primary Supervisor
Other Supervisors
Editor(s)

Dr. James W Kazura

Date
2004
Size

575789 bytes

35013 bytes

File type(s)

application/pdf

text/plain

Location
License
Abstract

This paper describes the development of an empirical model to forecast epidemics of Ross River virus (RRV) disease using the multivariate seasonal auto-regressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) technique in Brisbane, Australia. We obtained computerized data on notified RRV disease cases, climate, high tide, and population sizes in Brisbane for the period 1985 - 2001 from the Queensland Department of Health, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, the Queensland Department of Transport, and Australian Bureau of Statistics, respectively. The SARIMA model was developed and validated by dividing the data file into two data sets: the data between January 1985 and December 2000 were used to construct a model, and those between January and December 2001 to validate it. The SARIMA models show that monthly precipitation (ߠ= 0.004, P = 0.031) was significantly associated with RRV transmission. However, there was no significant association between other climate variables (e.g., temperature, relative humidity, and high tides) and RRV transmission. The predictive values in the model were generally consistent with actual values (root mean square percentage error = 0.94%). Therefore, this model may have applications as a decision supportive tool in disease control and risk-management planning programs.

Journal Title

American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene

Conference Title
Book Title
Edition
Volume

71

Issue

2

Thesis Type
Degree Program
School
DOI
Patent number
Funder(s)
Grant identifier(s)
Rights Statement
Rights Statement

© 2004 American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene. The attached file is reproduced here in accordance with the copyright policy of the publisher. Please refer to the journal's website for access to the definitive, published version.

Item Access Status
Note
Access the data
Related item(s)
Subject

Biomedical and clinical sciences

Persistent link to this record
Citation
Collections