Global assessment of drought characteristics in the Anthropocene

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Ndehedehe, Christopher E
Ferreira, Vagner G
Adeyeri, Oluwafemi E
Correa, Fabio M
Usman, Muhammad
Oussou, Francis E
Kalu, Ikechukwu
Okwuashi, Onuwa
Onojeghuo, Alex O
Getirana, Augusto
Dewan, Ashraf
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2023
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Abstract

Contemporary understanding of the impacts of climate change on global drought characteristics (e.g., intensities, extents) is still limited and not well understood. This knowledge is critical because projected changes in climate are expected to impact on future water availability as well as influence decisions on how water resources are allocated. The main aim of this study is to improve understanding of drought characteristics (extents and duration) in the Anthropocene where rapid changes in the environment are caused by the composite influence of human activities and climate change. Multi-scale earth observation data () and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 climate models, which incorporate the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways ( and ) are used to assess these characteristics as well as identify climatic hotspots where changes in drought characteristics could drive groundwater hydrology. Results show that towards the end of the 21st century, global land areas under drought will significantly decrease but their durations will not. Generally, there is evidence of significant decline in the proportion of areas that will experience various drought intensities (moderate, severe and extreme drought) in the future and for each category, drought affected areas will not reach 30% on average. Moreover, some regions are potential hotspots of climate-groundwater interactions where drought events could directly impact on groundwater. This is because of the varying degree of strong correlations (positive and negative) between climate and groundwater data in some areas (e.g., Australia, Europe, Southern Africa, Asia). The relatively strong negative correlations in some of these hotspots are indicative of the presence of considerable lags, that could be caused by aridity as well as human groundwater footprints.

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Resources, Environment and Sustainability

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© 2023 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V. on behalf of Lishui Institute of Ecology and Environment, Nanjing University. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).

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This publication has been entered in Griffith Research Online as an advanced online version.

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Climate change impacts and adaptation

Land use and environmental planning

Climatology

Groundwater hydrology

Political economy and social change

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Ndehedehe, CE; Ferreira, VG; Adeyeri, OE; Correa, FM; Usman, M; Oussou, FE; Kalu, I; Okwuashi, O; Onojeghuo, AO; Getirana, A; Dewan, A, Global assessment of drought characteristics in the Anthropocene, Resources, Environment and Sustainability, 2023, pp. 100105

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