Estimating the footprint of pollution on coral reefs with models of species turnover

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Brown, Christopher J
Hamilton, Richard J
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2018
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Abstract

Ecological communities typically change along gradients of human impact, although it is difficult to estimate the footprint of impacts for diffuse threats such as pollution. We developed a joint model (i.e., one that includes multiple species and their interactions with each other and environmental covariates) of benthic habitats on lagoonal coral reefs and used it to infer change in benthic composition along a gradient of distance from logging operations. The model estimated both changes in abundances of benthic groups and their compositional turnover, a type of beta diversity. We used the model to predict the footprint of turbidity impacts from past and recent logging. Benthic communities far from logging were dominated by branching corals, whereas communities close to logging had higher cover of dead coral, massive corals, and soft sediment. Recent impacts were predicted to be small relative to the extensive impacts of past logging because recent logging has occurred far from lagoonal reefs. Our model can be used more generally to estimate the footprint of human impacts on ecosystems and evaluate the benefits of conservation actions for ecosystems.

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Conservation Biology

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32

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4

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© 2018 Society for Conservation Biology. This is the peer reviewed version of the following article: 'Estimating the footprint of pollution on coral reefs with models of species turnover', Conservation Biology, Volume 32, Issue 4, Pages 949-958, August 2018, which has been published in final form at https://doi.org/10.1111/cobi.13079. This article may be used for non-commercial purposes in accordance with Wiley Terms and Conditions for Self-Archiving (http://olabout.wiley.com/WileyCDA/Section/id-828039.html)

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Environmental sciences

Biological sciences

Other biological sciences not elsewhere classified

Ecology

Bayesian modeling

Beta diversity

Ecological indicator

Latent variable

Logging

Multispecies distribution modeling

Water quality

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