Welfare-based income insecurity in the us and germany: evidence from harmonized panel data

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Rohde, Nicholas
Tang, Kam Ki
D'Ambrosio, Conchita
Osberg, Lars
Rao, Prasada
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2020
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Abstract

This paper develops normative approaches for measuring individual-level income insecurity. Using concepts derived from Expected Utility Theory and Prospect Theory, we build a suite of measures designed to capture various facets of psychologically distressing income risk. We present an application for the US and Germany from 1993–2013, employing conditionally heteroskedastic fixed-effects models to generate predictive densities for future incomes. Our results reveal much higher levels of income risk in the US relative to Germany, which can be mostly attributed to a higher level of autonomous, time-invariant volatility. State-by-state variations in liberal/conservative political administrations partially explain our results, and we find some evidence that trade exposure is a contributing factor in the US.

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Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization

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176

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Economic theory

Applied economics

Econometrics

Social Sciences

Business & Economics

Economic insecurity

Income risk

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Rohde, N; Tang, KK; D'Ambrosio, C; Osberg, L; Rao, P, Welfare-based income insecurity in the us and germany: evidence from harmonized panel data, Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 2020, 176, pp. 226-243

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