China coal exit: Opportunities for China-led financing of early phase down of coal-fired power plants in Pakistan and Vietnam

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Nedopil, Christoph
Ang, Lawrence
Carpio, Matt
Yue, Mengdi
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2024
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Prevalent literature assumes that coal-fired power plants (CFPP) in Asia are difficult to retire due to their relatively young age. This study evaluates how the financial values of six Chinese-sponsored coal-fired power plants (CFPP) in Pakistan and Vietnam are impacted through early plant retirement under different financing and economic scenarios. Contrary to common assumptions, the results indicate: • For all six plants in Vietnam and Pakistan, our modelling showed an increase in enterprise value with Asset/Portfolio Refinancing through early retirement; • When refinancing is bundled with renewable energy investments, the enterprise values would more than triple compared with the value of the original power purchasing agreement; • Accordingly, investors could benefit financially from early CFPP retirement; • Younger plants can shave more years off their commercial lifetime and be retired earlier due to higher relative debt burden and higher financing costs during the early years of operations; • In Pakistan with its very young CFPPs, refinancing would allow the retirement of the three plants seven to nine years ahead of schedule—while improving enterprise value. Based on the results, this study recommends that Chinese companies, financial institutions and other investors engaged in overseas CFPPs consider reducing their CFPP exposure by shifting to renewable energy investments. Enterprise value and feasibility of CFPP retirement bundled with renewable investment would further improve through concessional loans, credit enhancement mechanisms and innovative financing instruments such as debtfor-climate swaps involving Chinese CFPP sponsors. Note: data were collected as of January 2023. The analyses and discussion section of the study was drafted in the third quarter of 2023 and first presented publicly during the World Energy Forum (WEF) in November 2023. Results and findings may change given new national policies, financial and economic conditions.

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© 2024 Griffith Asia Institute, Griffith University, Green Finance & Development Center, FISF and Climate Smart Ventures.

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Nedopil, C; Ang, L; Carpio, M; Yue, M, China coal exit: Opportunities for China-led financing of early phase down of coal-fired power plants in Pakistan and Vietnam, 2024

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