Price recovery after the flood: risk to residential property values from climate change-related flooding

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Nguyen, Quyen
Thorsnes, Paul
Diaz-Rainey, Ivan
Moore, Antoni
Cox, Simon
Stirk-Wang, Leon
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2022
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We take advantage of a combination of a severe weather event from 3 to 4 June 2015 and a local policy, to investigate the housing market response to climate change-related flooding hazard. The study focuses on a residential area in a low-lying coastal suburb of Dunedin, New Zealand, where the groundwater level is shallow and close to sea level. An unusually heavy rain event in June 2015 resulted in flooding of a significant portion of land in especially low-lying areas. The city council responded by reviewing processes for storm-water management and by imposing minimum-floor-level [MFL] requirements on new construction in the low-lying areas previously identified as at risk of flooding. Applying a ‘diff-in-diff-in-diff’ strategy in hedonic regression analyses, we find that houses in the MFL zone sell for a discount of about 5 per cent prior to the flood. This discount briefly tripled in the area that flooded, but disappeared within 15 months, indicating either very short memory among homebuyers or no long-run change in perception of hazard.

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Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics

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66

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3

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© 2022 The Authors. The Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics published by John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd on behalf of Australasian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society Inc.

This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs License, which permits use and distribution in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited, the use is non-commercial and no modifications or adaptations are made.

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Applied economics

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Agricultural Economics & Policy

Economics

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Nguyen, Q; Thorsnes, P; Diaz-Rainey, I; Moore, A; Cox, S; Stirk-Wang, L, Price recovery after the flood: risk to residential property values from climate change-related flooding, Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, 2022, 66 (3), pp. 532-560

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