A framework for complex climate change risk assessment

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Simpson, Nicholas P
Mach, Katharine J
Constable, Andrew
Hess, Jeremy
Hogarth, Ryan
Howden, Mark
Lawrence, Judy
Lempert, Robert J
Muccione, Veruska
Mackey, Brendan
New, Mark G
O'Neill, Brian
Otto, Friederike
Poertner, Hans-O
Reisinger, Andy
et al.
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2021
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Abstract

Real-world experience underscores the complexity of interactions among multiple drivers of climate change risk and of how multiple risks compound or cascade. However, a holistic framework for assessing such complex climate change risks has not yet been achieved. Clarity is needed regarding the interactions that generate risk, including the role of adaptation and mitigation responses. In this perspective, we present a framework for three categories of increasingly complex climate change risk that focus on interactions among the multiple drivers of risk, as well as among multiple risks. A significant innovation is recognizing that risks can arise both from potential impacts due to climate change and from responses to climate change. This approach encourages thinking that traverses sectoral and regional boundaries and links physical and socio-economic drivers of risk. Advancing climate change risk assessment in these ways is essential for more informed decision making that reduces negative climate change impacts.

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One Earth

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4

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4

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© 2021 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

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Climate change impacts and adaptation

Science & Technology

Life Sciences & Biomedicine

Green & Sustainable Science & Technology

Environmental Sciences

Environmental Studies

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Simpson, NP; Mach, KJ; Constable, A; Hess, J; Hogarth, R; Howden, M; Lawrence, J; Lempert, RJ; Muccione, V; Mackey, B; New, MG; O'Neill, B; Otto, F; Poertner, H-O; Reisinger, A; et al., A framework for complex climate change risk assessment, One Earth, 2021, 4 (4), pp. 489-501

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