Long Term Implications of Climate Change on Crop Planning

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Lewis, A
Randall, M
Elliott, S
Montgomery, J
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2019
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Faro, Portugal

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Abstract

The effects of climate change have been much speculated on in the past few years. Consequently, there has been intense interest in one of its key issues of food security into the future. This is particularly so given population increase, urban encroachment on arable land, and the degradation of the land itself. Recently, work has been done on predicting precipitation and temperature for the next few decades as well as developing optimisation models for crop planning. Combining these together, this paper examines the effects of climate change on a large food producing region in Australia, the Murrumbidgee Irrigation Area. For time periods between 1991 and 2071 for dry, average and wet years, an analysis is made about the way that crop mixes will need to change to adapt for the effects of climate change. It is found that sustainable crop choices will change into the future, and that large-scale irrigated agriculture may become unviable in the region in all but the wettest years.

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Lecture Notes in Computer Science (including subseries Lecture Notes in Artificial Intelligence and Lecture Notes in Bioinformatics)

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11536

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© Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2019. This is the author-manuscript version of this paper. Reproduced in accordance with the copyright policy of the publisher. The original publication is available at www.springerlink.com

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Artificial intelligence

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Lewis, A; Randall, M; Elliott, S; Montgomery, J, Long Term Implications of Climate Change on Crop Planning, Computational Science – ICCS 2019, 2019, 11536 LNCS, pp. 369-382