Improved Prediction of Procedure Duration for Elective Surgery
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Khanna, Sankalp
Sattar, Adbul
Lind, James
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Ryan, A
Schaper, LK
Whetton, S
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Accurate surgery duration estimation is essential for efficient use of hospital operating theatres and the scheduling of elective patients. This study focuses on analysing the performance of previously developed surgery duration prediction algorithms at a specialty level to gain further insight on their performance. We also evaluate algorithm performance after applying filtering to exclude unreliable data from modelling, and develop and validate new ensemble approaches for prediction. These are shown to significantly improve the prediction accuracy of the algorithms. Employing filtered data delivers a reduction in overall prediction error of 44% (Mean Absolute Percentage Error from 0.68 to 0.38) employing the Random Forests algorithm, while using the newly developed ensemble approach delivers a Mean Absolute Percentage Error of 0.31, a reduction of 55% when compared to the original error, and a reduction of 18% when compared to the Random Forests performance on filtered data.
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Integrating and Connecting Care
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© 2017 The authors and IOS Press. This article is published online with Open Access by IOS Press and distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial License 4.0 (CC BY-NC 4.0)., which permits unrestricted, non-commercial use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
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Information systems not elsewhere classified
Library and information studies