Predicting the likelihood of venous leg ulcer recurrence: The diagnostic accuracy of a newly developed risk assessment tool

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Finlayson, Kathleen J
Parker, Christina N
Miller, Charne
Gibb, Michelle
Kapp, Suzanne
Ogrin, Rajna
Anderson, Jacinta
Coleman, Kerrie
Smith, Dianne
Edwards, Helen E
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2018
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Abstract

The aim of this study was to validate a newly developed tool for predicting the risk of recurrence within 12 months of a venous leg ulcer healing. Performance of the tool to predict recurrence within a 12-month period was assessed using Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve (AUC) analysis. Multi-site retrospective and prospective longitudinal studies were undertaken to validate a risk assessment tool for the recurrence of venous leg ulcers within 12 months. In the retrospective study (n = 250), 55% of venous leg ulcers recurred within 12 months, and the risk assessment total score had excellent discrimination and goodness of fit with an AUC of 0.83 (95% CI, 0.76-0.90, P < .001). The prospective study (n = 143) observed that 50.4% (n = 63) of venous leg ulcers recurred within 12 months of healing. Participants were classified using the risk assessment tool as being at low risk (28%), moderate risk (59%), and high risk (13%); the proportion of wounds recurring at 12 months was 15%, 61%, and 67% for each group, respectively. Validation results indicated good discrimination and goodness of fit, with an AUC of 0.73 (95% CI, 0.64-0.82, P < .001). Validation of this risk assessment tool for the recurrence of venous leg ulcers provides clinicians with a resource to identify high-risk patients and to guide decisions on adjunctive, tailored interventions to address the specific risk factors to decrease the risk of recurrence.

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International Wound Journal

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15

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5

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© 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd and Medicalhelplines.com Inc. This is the peer reviewed version of the following article: Predicting the likelihood of venous leg ulcer recurrence: The diagnostic accuracy of a newly developed risk assessment tool, International Wound Journal, 2018, 15 (5), pp. 686-694, which has been published in final form at https://doi.org/10.1111/iwj.12911. This article may be used for non-commercial purposes in accordance with Wiley Terms and Conditions for Self-Archiving (http://olabout.wiley.com/WileyCDA/Section/id-828039.html)

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Clinical sciences

Nursing

Science & Technology

Life Sciences & Biomedicine

Dermatology

Surgery

recurrence

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Finlayson, KJ; Parker, CN; Miller, C; Gibb, M; Kapp, S; Ogrin, R; Anderson, J; Coleman, K; Smith, D; Edwards, HE, Predicting the likelihood of venous leg ulcer recurrence: The diagnostic accuracy of a newly developed risk assessment tool,International Wound Journal, 2018, 15 (5), pp. 686-694

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