2012-08: Regimes in Australian Pension Fund Returns: A Hidden Semi-Markov Approach (Working paper)
File version
Author(s)
Drew, Michael E.
Walk, Adam N.
Griffith University Author(s)
Primary Supervisor
Other Supervisors
Editor(s)
Akimov, Alexandr
Date
Size
33 pages
File type(s)
Location
License
Abstract
Regimes are of interest to investors as they describe periods of episodic changes in returns and volatility caused by the non-normality and non-linearity characteristics of financial returns. The literature to date has examined regimes in single asset classes with little emphasis on the regime behavior of diversified (i.e. multi-asset investment) portfolios. This study examines whether lowering risk or increasing asset diversification are valid methods for investors to temper the regime behavior of their portfolios. Using a hidden semi-Markov model, we analyse the returns of two pension (i.e. superannuation) fund investment portfolios at opposite ends of the risk spectrum, namely a low risk cash-based portfolio and a moderate-to-high risk, but highly diversified, balanced portfolio. The findings show that asset class diversification does not appear to offer any noticeable benefits in relation to managing the regime behavior of investment portfolios. The findings also reveal that risk-reduction towards a cash based investment does not mitigate regimes in diversified portfolios.
Journal Title
Conference Title
Book Title
Edition
Volume
Issue
Thesis Type
Degree Program
School
Publisher link
DOI
Patent number
Funder(s)
Grant identifier(s)
Rights Statement
Rights Statement
Copyright © 2010 by author(s). No part of this paper may be reproduced in any form, or stored in a retrieval system, without prior permission of the author(s).
Item Access Status
Note
Finance
Access the data
Related item(s)
Subject
G11 - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
G23 - Pension Funds; Other Private Financial Institutions; Institutional Investors
regimes
pensions
hidden semi-Markov models