Real-time forecasting of pesticide concentrations in soil

Loading...
Thumbnail Image
File version

Version of Record (VoR)

Author(s)
McGrath, Gavan
Rao, P Suresh C
Mellander, Per-Erik
Kennedy, Ivan
Rose, Michael
van Zwieten, Lukas
Griffith University Author(s)
Primary Supervisor
Other Supervisors
Editor(s)
Date
2019
Size
File type(s)
Location
Abstract

Forecasting pesticide residues in soils in real time is essential for agronomic purposes, to manage phytotoxic effects, and in catchments to manage surface and ground water quality. This has not been possible in the past due to both modelling and measurement constraints. Here, the analytical transient probability distribution (pdf) of pesticide concentrations is derived. The pdf results from the random ways in which rain events occur after pesticide application. First-order degradation kinetics and linear equilibrium sorption are assumed. The analytical pdfs allow understanding of the relative contributions that climate (mean storm depth and mean rainfall event frequency) and chemical (sorption and degradation) properties have on the variability of soil concentrations into the future. We demonstrated the two uncertain reaction parameters can be constrained using Bayesian methods. An approach to a Bayesian informed forecast is then presented. With the use of new rapid tests capable of providing quantitative measurements of soil concentrations in the field, real-time forecasting of future pesticide concentrations now looks possible for the first time. Such an approach offers new means to manage crops, soils and water quality, and may be extended to other classes of pesticides for ecological risk assessment purposes.

Journal Title

Science of the Total Environment

Conference Title
Book Title
Edition
Volume

663

Issue
Thesis Type
Degree Program
School
Publisher link
Patent number
Funder(s)
Grant identifier(s)
Rights Statement
Rights Statement

© The Author(s) YEAR. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 4.0 International (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0) License, which permits unrestricted, non-commercial use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, providing that the work is properly cited.

Item Access Status
Note
Access the data
Related item(s)
Subject

Environmental sciences

Science & Technology

Life Sciences & Biomedicine

Environmental Sciences & Ecology

Pesticide

Persistent link to this record
Citation

McGrath, G; Rao, PSC; Mellander, P-E; Kennedy, I; Rose, M; van Zwieten, L, Real-time forecasting of pesticide concentrations in soil, Science of the Total Environment, 2019, 663, pp. 709-717

Collections