Volatility forecasting using related markets' information for the Tokyo stock exchange

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Jayawardena, Nirodha
Todorova, Neda
Li, Bin
Su, Jen-Je
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2020
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Abstract

Due to lack of information, volatility cannot be estimated via a high-frequency approach when markets are non-trading. In this paper, we focus on volatility forecasting for the Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE) using high-frequency data of related assets traded in international markets when TSE is closed. We use the heterogenous autoregressive model to identify an optimal approach of this additional information for the ten largest TSE-listed stocks, TOPIX and Nikkei 225. The usefulness of harnessing global and neighbour market information in forecasting the TSE market volatility is confirmed through in-depth empirical analysis. Our findings have important implications for investors and policy makers.

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Economic Modelling

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90

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Investment and risk management

Financial econometrics

Banking, finance and investment

Applied economics

Econometrics

Social Sciences

Business & Economics

Tokyo stock exchange

Realised volatility

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Jayawardena, N; Todorova, N; Li, B; Su, J-J, Volatility forecasting using related markets' information for the Tokyo stock exchange, Economic Modelling, 2020, 90, pp. 143-158

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