Does exchange rate volatility affect the impact of appreciation and depreciation on the trade balance? A nonlinear bivariate approach
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Naranpanawa, Athula
Su, Jen-Je
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Does exchange rate volatility alter the effect of appreciation and depreciation on the trade balance? The literature posits that the trade balance responds more to depreciation shocks than appreciation shocks. Using monthly data from 1960M02–2020M12, we examine the asymmetric effects of exchange rates on the trade balance while accounting for exchange rate volatility. The study applies a nonlinear bivariate model that allows asymmetric effects and volatility to be examined concurrently. We find that exchange rate volatility reduces the positive effects of an appreciation shock on the trade balance in developed countries in the short and long run. In developing nations, exchange rate volatility promotes the positive effects of a depreciation shock on the trade balance, both in the short and long run. The transmission mechanism implies that a depreciation shock is ineffective in developed countries because the volatility that accompanies the shock diminishes the trade balance.
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Economic Modelling
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© 2023 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V. This article is available under the Creative Commons CC-BY-NC-ND license and permits non-commercial use of the work as published, without adaptation or alteration provided the work is fully attributed.
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International economics
Banking, finance and investment
Applied economics
Econometrics
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Bosupeng, M; Naranpanawa, A; Su, J-J, Does exchange rate volatility affect the impact of appreciation and depreciation on the trade balance? A nonlinear bivariate approach, Economic Modelling, 2023, pp. 106592