The 2022 Australian Federal Election: Results from The Australian Election Study
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McAllister, Ian
Jackman, Simon
Sheppard, Jill
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Abstract
This report presents findings from the 2022 Australian Election Study (AES). The AES surveyed a nationally representative sample of 2,508 voters after the 2022 Australian federal election to find out what shaped their choices in the election. The AES has fielded representative surveys after every federal election since 1987, which allows these results to be placed in a long-term context. This report provides insights into what informed voting behaviour in the election and voters’ attitudes towards policy issues, the political leaders, and the functioning of Australian democracy generally. The main findings are as follows: Public policy and the economy • A majority of voters (53 percent) cast their ballots based on policy issues, down from 66 percent in 2019. • The most important issues in the election identified by voters included the cost of living (32 percent), environmental issues (17 percent), management of the economy (15 percent), and health (14 percent). • Voters preferred Labor’s policies on the cost of living, education, health, and the environment. • Voters preferred the Coalition’s policies on management of the economy, taxation, and national security. The Coalition’s advantage in economic policy areas was significantly reduced since 2019. • Evaluations of the national economy were worse in 2022 than in any election since 1990. Two thirds of voters reported that the national economy became worse over the past year. Leaders • Anthony Albanese was evaluated more favourably than any political party leader since Kevin Rudd in 2007, scoring 5.3 on a zero to 10 popularity scale. • With Anthony Albanese as party leader, Labor attracted more votes based on leadership than in the 2016 and 2019 elections. • Scott Morrison became the least popular major party leader in the history of the AES, scoring 3.8 on a zero to 10 popularity scale, down from 5.1 in the 2019 election. • Anthony Albanese was evaluated more favourably than Scott Morrison in eight of nine leader characteristics, with the biggest differences in perceptions of honesty, trustworthiness, and compassion. The ‘Teal’ independents • Political partisanship for the major parties reached record lows in 2022. The proportion of voters that always vote the same way is also at a record low (37 percent). This growing detachment from the major political parties provided the conditions that supported the Teals’ success. • Most Teal voters were not ‘disaffected Liberals’, but tactical Labor and Greens voters. Less than one in five Teal voters previously voted for the Coalition. • On average, Teal voters are ideologically close to Labor voters – placing themselves just left of centre on a zero to 10 left-right scale (Teal mean: 4.4; Labor mean: 4.3). Socio-demographic influences on the vote • Men were more likely to vote for the Coalition than women (men: 38 percent; women: 32 percent). Women were more likely than men to vote for Labor and the Greens. This represents a longer-term reversal of the gender gap in voter behaviour, since the 1990s women have shifted to the left and men to the right in their party preferences. • Since 2019, the Coalition lost support from both men and women. • There are major generational differences in voter behaviour. The Coalition has very little support among Millennials and Generation Z. The Coalition’s share of the vote fell in almost every age group, but especially among the youngest cohorts of voters. • The self-identified working class remain more likely to vote Labor (38 percent) than the Coalition (33 percent). • Since 2019 the Coalition has lost support among university-educated and higher income voters. Attitudes towards democracy • After reaching record lows in 2019, there has been a slight improvement in political trust and satisfaction with democracy. While 70 percent of Australians are satisfied with how democracy is working, just 30 percent of Australians believe people in government can be trusted. • A majority of Australians (54 percent) believe that the government is run for ‘a few big interests’, while just 12 percent believe the government is run for ‘all the people’. • Four in five Australians support recognition of Indigenous Australians in the Constitution. This high level of support has been consistent over the past three elections. • Since 2019, there has been a 5 percent increase in support for Australia becoming a republic, with 54 percent in favour. • Australians express strong support for potential reforms to improve Australian politics, including a national anti-corruption body, limiting donations to political parties, and parties selecting more women candidates. The COVID-19 pandemic • Overall, Australians evaluated the performance of the federal government’s handling the pandemic more negatively than their state government. Around half (51 percent) thought their state government handled the pandemic well, compared to 30 percent who thought the Commonwealth government handled the pandemic well. • There are major differences across states – in Tasmania and Western Australia 75 percent thought the state government handled the pandemic well, compared to just 36 percent in Victoria. • Among those who thought the federal government handled the pandemic badly, only 12 percent voted for the Coalition, while 42 percent voted Labor and almost one third voted for a minor party or independent. • A majority of Australians thought the pandemic had negative impacts on social cohesion or inclusiveness (64 percent) and individual rights and freedoms (54 percent). One third of Australians reported that the pandemic had negatively affected their personal economic circumstances. Only a small minority of Australians believed the pandemic had positive impacts for Australian society. This report highlights just a few of the main findings from the 2022 Australian Election Study. Further information on the long-term trends is available in an accompanying report Trends in Australian Political Opinion: Results from the Australian Election Study 1987-2022. The Australian Election Study website provides the data for researchers to conduct their own analysis, and interactive charts to explore the data online: www.australianelectionstudy.org
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© 2022 Australian Election Study. The attached file is reproduced here in accordance with the copyright policy of the publisher. Please refer to the publisher’s website for further information.
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Public policy
Australian government and politics
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Cameron, S; McAllister, I; Jackman, S; Sheppard, J, The 2022 Australian Federal Election: Results from The Australian Election Study, 2022, pp. 1-42