Does natural gas volatility affect Bitcoin volatility? Evidence from the HAR-RV model

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Omura, Akihiro
Cheung, Adrian Wai Kong
Su, Jen Je
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2023
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Abstract

While volatility spillover is a vital research area in financial economics (due to its importance for risk valuation and portfolio diversification strategies), the volatility linkage between Bitcoin and electricity/energy markets has not received adequate attention. As the Bitcoin mining cost comes mainly from electricity (which is highly dependent on natural gas), we hypothesize that natural gas is a non-trivial Bitcoin price volatility driver and aim to test if this is the case. Specifically, we employ a widely used model called the HAR-RV model to assess volatility spillover across Bitcoin and natural gas using high-frequency data. We find a spillover effect from natural gas to Bitcoin, and the positive (negative) component of natural gas volatility stabilizes (destabilizes) Bitcoin volatility. The spillover effect is further examined and confirmed using an out-of-sample approach.

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Applied Economics

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© 2023 The Author(s). Published by Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/), which permits non-commercial re-use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited, and is not altered, transformed, or built upon in any way.

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This publication has been entered in Griffith Research Online as an advanced online version.

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Banking, finance and investment

Applied economics

Econometrics

Social Sciences

Economics

Business & Economics

Bitcoin

volatility

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Omura, A; Cheung, AWK; Su, JJ, Does natural gas volatility affect Bitcoin volatility? Evidence from the HAR-RV model, Applied Economics, 2023

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