A Spatio-Temporal Neural Network Forecasting Approach for Emulation of Firefront Models

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Bolt, Andrew
Huston, Carolyn
Kuhnert, Petra
Dabrowski, Joel Janek
Hilton, James
Sanderson, Conrad
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2022
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Poznan, Poland

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Abstract

Computational simulations of wildfire spread typically employ empirical rate-of-spread calculations under various conditions (such as terrain, fuel type, weather). Small perturbations in conditions can often lead to significant changes in fire spread (such as speed and direction), necessitating a computationally expensive large set of simulations to quantify uncertainty. Model emulation seeks alternative representations of physical models using machine learning, aiming to provide more efficient and/or simplified surrogate models. We propose a dedicated spatio-temporal neural network based framework for model emulation, able to capture the complex behaviour of fire spread models. The proposed approach can approximate forecasts at fine spatial and temporal resolutions that are often challenging for neural network based approaches. Furthermore, the proposed approach is robust even with small training sets, due to novel data augmentation methods. Empirical experiments show good agreement between simulated and emulated firefronts, with an average Jaccard score of 0.76.

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2022 Signal Processing: Algorithms, Architectures, Arrangements, and Applications (SPA)

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© 2022 IEEE. Personal use of this material is permitted. Permission from IEEE must be obtained for all other uses, in any current or future media, including reprinting/republishing this material for advertising or promotional purposes, creating new collective works, for resale or redistribution to servers or lists, or reuse of any copyrighted component of this work in other works.

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Subject

Fire ecology

Forestry fire management

Artificial intelligence

Machine learning

Signal processing

Image processing

Modelling and simulation

Neural networks

Time series and spatial modelling

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Bolt, A; Huston, C; Kuhnert, P; Dabrowski, JJ; Hilton, J; Sanderson, C, A Spatio-Temporal Neural Network Forecasting Approach for Emulation of Firefront Models, 2022 Signal Processing: Algorithms, Architectures, Arrangements, and Applications (SPA), 2022