A Lightweight and Efficient GA-Based Model-Agnostic Feature Selection Scheme for Time Series Forecasting

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Author(s)
Nguyen, MH
Nguyen, VH
Huynh, TT
Nguyen, TH
Nguyen, QVH
Nguyen, PL
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2022
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Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam

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Abstract

Time series prediction, which obtains historical data of multiple features to predict values of features of interest in the future, is widely used in many fields. One of the critical issues in dealing with the time series prediction task is how to choose appropriate input features. This paper proposes a novel approach to select a sub-optimal feature combination automatically. Our proposed method is model-agnostic that can be integrated with any prediction model. The basic idea is to use a Genetic Algorithm to discover a near-optimal feature combination; the fitness of a solution is calculated based on the accuracy obtained from the prediction model. In addition, to reduce the time complexity, we introduce a strategy to generate training data used in the fitness calculation. The proposed strategy aims to satisfy at the same time two objectives: minimizing the amount of training data, thereby saving the model’s training time, and ensuring the diversity of the data to guarantee the prediction accuracy. The experimental results show that our proposed GA-based feature selection method can improve the prediction accuracy by an average of 28.32% compared to other existing approaches. Moreover, by using the proposed training data generation strategy we can shorten the time complexity by 25.67% to 85.34%, while the prediction accuracy is degraded by only 2.97% on average.

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ACIIDS 2022: Intelligent Information and Database Systems

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13758

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Data management and data science

Artificial intelligence

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Nguyen, MH; Nguyen, VH; Huynh, TT; Nguyen, TH; Nguyen, QVH; Nguyen, PL, A Lightweight and Efficient GA-Based Model-Agnostic Feature Selection Scheme for Time Series Forecasting, ACIIDS 2022: Intelligent Information and Database Systems, 2022, 13758, pp. 26-39