Climate resilient development (CRD) is a process of implementing greenhouse gas mitigation and adaptation options to support sustainable development for all {Section 18.1}. Climate action and sustainable development are interdependent processes and climate resilient development is possible when this interdependence is leveraged. Pursuing these goals in an integrated manner increases their effectiveness in enhancing human and ecological well-being. Climate resilient development can help build capacity for climate action, including contributing to reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, while enabling the implementation of adaptation options that enhance social, economic and ecological resilience to climate change as the prospect of crossing the 1.5°C global warming level in the early 2030s approaches (WGI Table SPM1). For example, incorporating clean energy generation, healthy diets from sustainable food systems, appropriate urban planning and transport, universal health coverage and social protection, can generate substantial health and well-being co-benefits (very high confidence1 ) {Section 7.4.4, Cross-Chapter Box HEALTH in Chapter 7}. Similarly, universal water and energy access can help to reduce poverty and improve well-being while making populations less vulnerable and more resilient to adverse climate impacts (very high confidence) {Section 18.1, Box 4.7}.

Current development pathways, combined with the observed impacts of climate change, are leading away from, rather than towards, sustainable development, as reported in recent literature (moderate agreement , robust evidence). While demonstrable progress has been made on some of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), significant gains across a range of targets are still necessary, as is enhancing synergies and balancing and managing trade-offs. Severe risks to natural and human systems are already observed in some places (high confidence) and could occur in many more systems worldwide before mid-century (medium confidence) and by the end of the century at all scales, from the local to the global, and at all latitudes and altitudes (high confidence). The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic revealed the vulnerability of development progress to shocks and stresses, potentially delaying the implementation of the 2030 Agenda for all {Section 8.1, Cross-Chapter Box COVID in Chapter 7}. Various global trends, including rising income inequality, continued growth in greenhouse gas emissions, land use change, food and water insecurity, human displacement and reversals of long-term increasing life expectancy trends in some nations, run counter to the SDGs (very high confidence), as well as efforts to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to a changing climate {Section 18.2}. These development trends contribute to worsening poverty, injustice and inequity, and environmental degradation. Climate change can exacerbate these conditions by undermining human and ecological well-being {Section 18.2}.

Social and economic inequities linked to gender, poverty, race/ethnicity, religion, age or geographic location compound vulnerability to climate change and have created and could further exacerbate injustices, as well as constrain the implementation of CRD for all (very high confidence). Climate change intensifies existing vulnerability and inequality, with adverse impacts of climate change on the most vulnerable groups, including women and children in low-income households, Indigenous or other minority groups, small-scale producers and fishing communities, and low-income countries (high confidence). Most vulnerable regions and population groups, such as in East, Central and West Africa, South Asia, Micronesia and Melanesia, and Central America, present the most urgent need for adaptation (high confidence) {Chapters 10, 12, 15}. Climate justice initiatives explicitly address these multi-dimensional distributional issues as part of climate change adaptation. However, adaptation strategies can worsen social inequities, including gender, unless explicit efforts are made to change those unequal power dynamics, including spaces to foster inclusive decision making. Drawing upon Indigenous knowledge and local knowledge can contribute to overcoming the combined challenges of climate change, food security, biodiversity conservation, and combating desertification and land degradation. {Section 18.2; Cross-Chapter Box GENDER; Cross-Chapter Box INDIG}

Opportunities for climate resilient development vary by location (very high confidence). Over 3.3 billion people live in regions that are very high and highly vulnerable to climate change, while 2 billion people live in regions with low and very low vulnerability. Response to global greenhouse gas emissions trajectories, regional and local development pathways, climate risk exposure, socioeconomic and ecological vulnerability, and the local capacity to implement effective adaptation and greenhouse gas mitigation options, differ depending on local contexts and conditions {Table 18.3}. As an example, underlying social and economic vulnerabilities in Australasia exacerbate disadvantage among particular social groups and there is deep under-investment in adaptation, given current and projected risks {Chapter 11}. There is also significant regional heterogeneity in climate change, exposure and vulnerability, indicating different starting points for CRD, as well as mitigation, adaptation and sustainable development opportunities, synergies and trade-offs {Section 18.5}.

There are multiple possible pathways by which communities, nations and the world can pursue CRD. Moving towards different pathways involves confronting complex synergies and trade-offs between development pathways, and the options, contested values and interests that underpin climate mitigation and adaptation choices (very high confidence). Climate resilient development pathways (CRDPs) are trajectories for the pursuit of CRD and navigating its complexities. Different actors, the private sector and civil society, influenced by science, local and Indigenous knowledges, and the media are both active and passive in designing and navigating CRDPs {Sections 18.1, 18.4}. Increasing levels of warming may narrow the options and choices available for local survival and sustainable development for human societies and ecosystems. Limiting warming to Paris Agreement goals will reduce the magnitude of climate risks to which people, places the economy and ecosystems will have to adapt. Reconciling the costs, benefits and trade-offs associated with adaptation, mitigation and sustainable development interventions and how they are distributed among different populations and geographies is essential and challenging, but also creates the potential to pursue synergies that benefit human and ecological well-being. For example, in parts of Asia, sustainable development pathways that connect climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction can reduce climate vulnerability and increase resilience {Table 18.3, Section 10.6.2 }. Different actors and stakeholders have different priorities regarding these opportunities, which can exacerbate or diminish existing social, economic and ecological vulnerabilities and inequities. For example, in parts of Africa, intensive irrigation contributes to the development of agriculture but has come at a cost to ecosystem integrity and human well-being {Table 18.3, Section 9.1.5.2}. Careful and explicit consideration for the ethical and equity dimensions of policies and practices associated with a climate resilient development pathway can help limit these negative externalities.

Prevailing development pathways are not advancing CRD (very high confidence). Societal choices in the near term will determine future pathways. Some low-emissions pathways and climate outcomes are unlikely 2 to be realised (very high confidence). Rapid climate change is affecting every region across the globe and affecting natural and human systems relevant to the pursuit of the SDGs {Sections 18.1, 18.2, Figure 18.1}. Even the most ambitious greenhouse gas mitigation scenarios indicate climate change will continue for decades to centuries {WGI, Section 18.2 }. Increasing mitigation effort across multiple sectors exhibits opportunities for synergies with sustainable development, but also trade-offs that increase with mitigation efforts, that need to be balanced and managed (high confidence). The uncertainty associated with achieving specific pathways and climate outcomes is a risk factor to consider in planning, with plausibility and transformational challenges, as well as trade-offs and synergies, affected by technology, policy design and societal choices {Section 18.2}. For instance, restrictions on utilisation of individual mitigation options to manage trade-offs (e.g., bioenergy with carbon capture and storage [CCS], afforestation, nuclear power) can also affect the mitigation cost to households (e.g., energy security, commodity prices) and the likelihood of a desired climate outcome being realised. Developing and transitional economies are estimated as low-cost mitigation opportunities but are often at high risk from climate change due to their regional and development context (high confidence) {Sections 18.2, 18.5}. For example, in Africa, competing uses for water such as hydropower generation, irrigation and ecosystem requirements can create trade-offs among different management and development objectives {Section 9.7.3}. In Asia, intensive irrigation and other forms of water consumption can have a negative effect on water quality and aquatic ecosystems {Section 10.6.3}. Developed countries also face trade-offs, including in Australasia where adapting to fire risk in peri-urban zones introduces potential trade-offs among ecological values and fuel reduction in treed landscapes {Section 11.3.5}, and in North America where new coastal and alpine developments generate economic activity but enhance local social inequalities {Section 15.4.10}.

Systems transitions can enable CRD when accompanied by appropriate enabling conditions and inclusive arenas of engagement (very high confidence). Five systems transitions are considered: energy, industry, urban and infrastructure, land and ecosystems, and societal. Advancing CRD in specific contexts may necessitate simultaneous progress on all five transitions. Collectively, these system transitions can widen the solution space, and accelerate and deepen the implementation of sustainable development, adaptation, and mitigation actions by equipping actors and decision makers with more effective options. For example, urban ecological infrastructure linked to an appropriate land use mix, street connectivity, open and green spaces, and job-housing proximity provides adaptation and mitigation benefits that can aid urban transformation. {Table 18.4, Cross-Working Group Box URBAN in Chapter 6} These system transitions are necessary precursors for more fundamental climate and sustainable-development transformations; but can simultaneously be outcomes of transformative actions. However, the way they are pursued may not necessarily be perceived as ethical or desirable to all actors. Hence, enhancing equity and agency are cross-cutting considerations for all five transitions. Such transitions can generate benefits across different sectors and regions, provided they are facilitated by appropriate enabling conditions, including effective governance, policy implementation, innovation, and climate and development finance, which are currently insufficient {Sections 18.3, 18.4}.

There is a rapidly narrowing window of opportunity to implement system transitions needed to enable CRD. Past choices have already eliminated some development pathways, but other pathways for CRD remain (very high confidence). In spite of a growth in national net-zero commitments, the current prospects of surpassing 1.5°C global mean temperatures by the 2030s are high {WGI Table SPM1}. There is strong evidence of the worsening of multiple climate impact drivers in all regions, that will place additional pressures on ecosystem services that support food and water systems, increasing the risks of malnutrition, ill-health and poverty in many regions {WGI Fig SPM9, Table 18.4}. This implies that significant additional adaptation will be needed. Over the near-term, implementing such transformational change could be disruptive to various economic and social systems. Over the long-term, however, they could generate benefits to human well-being and planetary health. Strengthening coordinated adaptation and mitigation actions can enhance the potential of local and regional development pathways to support CRD. Planning for CRD can support both adaptation and decarbonisation via effective land use, promoting resilient and low-carbon infrastructure; protecting biodiversity and integrating ecosystem services {Table 18.4}, assuming advancing just and equitable development processes.

Prospects for transformation towards CRD increase when key governance actors work together in inclusive and constructive ways to create a set of appropriate enabling conditions {Section 18.4.2} (high confidence). These enabling conditions include effective governance and information flow, policy frameworks that incentivise sustainability solutions; adequate financing for adaptation, mitigation and sustainable development; institutional capacity; science, technology and innovation; monitoring and evaluation of climate resilient development policies, programmes and practices; and international cooperation. Investment in social and technological innovation could generate the knowledge and entrepreneurship needed to catalyse system transitions and their transfer. The implementation of policies that incentivise the deployment of low-carbon technologies and practices within specific sectors such as energy, buildings and agriculture could accelerate greenhouse gas mitigation and deployment of climate-resilient infrastructure in urban and rural areas. Civic engagement is an important element of building societal consensus and reducing barriers to action on adaptation, mitigation and sustainable development {Section 18.4}.

CRDPs are determined through engagement in different arenas, the degree to which the emergent pathways foster just and CRD depends on how contending societal interests, values and worldviews are reconciled through inclusive and participatory interactions between governance actors in these arenas of engagement {Section 18.4.3} (high confidence). These interactions occur in many different arenas (e.g., governmental, economic and financial, political, knowledge, science and technology, and community) that represent the settings, places and spaces in which societal actors interact to influence the nature and course of development. For instance, the Agenda 2030 highlights the importance of multi-level adaptation governance, including non-state actors from civil society and the private sector. This implies the need for wider arenas and modes of engagement around adaptation that facilitate coordination, convergence and productive contestation among these diverse actors to collectively solve problems and to unlock the synergies between adaptation and mitigation and sustainable development.

Regional and national differences mean different capacities for pursuing CRDPs. Economic sectors and global regions are exposed to different opportunities and challenges in facilitating CRD, suggesting adaptation and mitigation options should be aligned to local and regional context and development pathways (veryhigh confidence). Given their current state of development, some regions may prioritise poverty and inequality reduction, and economic development over the near-term as a means of building capacity for climate action and low-carbon development over the long-term. For example, Africa, South Asia, and Central and South America are highly exposed, vulnerable and impacted by climate change, which is amplified by poverty, population growth, land use change and high dependence on natural resources for commodity production. In contrast, developed economies with mature economies and high levels of resilience may prioritise climate action to transition their energy systems and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Some interventions may be robust in that they are relevant to a broad range of potential development trajectories and could be deployed in a flexible manner. For example, conservation of land and water could be achieved through a variety of means and offer benefits to populations in the Global North and South alike. However, other types of interventions, such as those that are dependent upon emerging technologies, may require a specific set of enhanced enabling conditions or factors including infrastructure, supply chains, international cooperation, and education and training that currently limit their implementation to certain settings {Section 18.5}. Notwithstanding national and regional differences, development practices that are aligned to people, prosperity, partnerships, peace and the planet, as defined in Agenda 2030, could enable more CRD {Figure 18.1}.

People, acting through enabling social, economic and political institutions are the agents of system and societal transformations that facilitate CRD founded on the principles of inclusion, equity, climate justice, ecosystem health and human well-being (veryhigh confidence). While much literature on climate action has focused on the role of technology and policy as the factors that drive change, recent literature has focused on the role of specific actors; citizens, civil society, knowledge institutions (including local and Indigenous Peoples and science), governments, investors and businesses. Greater attention to, and transparency of, which actors’ benefit, fail to benefit or are impacted by mitigation and adaptation choices actions could better support climate-resilient and sustainable development. For example, grounding adaptation actions in local realities could help to ensure that adaptive actions do not worsen existing gender and other inequities within society (e.g., leading to maladaptation practices) (high confidence). Differences in the ability of different actors to effect change ultimately influence which interventions for sustainable development or climate action are implemented and thus what development outcomes are achieved. Recent literature has focused on the social, political and economic arenas of engagement in which these different actors interact. More focused attention on these arenas of engagement could prove beneficial to reconciling divergent views on climate action, integrating Indigenous knowledge and local knowledges, and elevating diverse voices that have historically been marginalised from the policy discourse, thereby reducing vulnerability and deepening adaptive capacity and the ability to implement CRD {Section 18.4; Cross-Chapter Box GENDER; Cross-Chapter Box INDIG}.

Pursuing CRD involves considering a broader range of sustainable development priorities, policies and practices, as well as enabling societal choices to accelerate and deepen their implementation (very high confidence). Scientific assessments of climate change have traditionally framed solutions around the implementation of specific adaptation and mitigation options as mechanisms for reducing climate-related risks. They have given less attention to a fuller set of societal priorities and the role of non-climate policies, social norms, lifestyles, power relationships and worldviews in enabling climate action and sustainable development. Because CRD involves different actors pursuing plural development trajectories in diverse contexts, the pursuit of solutions that are equitable for all requires opening the space for engagement and action to a diversity of people, institutions, forms of knowledge and worldviews. Through inclusive modes of engagement that enhance knowledge sharing and realise the productive potential of diverse perspectives and worldviews, societies could alter institutional structures and arrangements, development processes, choices and actions that have precipitated dangerous climate change, constrained the achievement of SDGs and, thus, limited pathways to achieving CRD {Box 18.1, Section 18.4 }. Action over the next decade will be critical for charting CRD pathways that catalyse the transformation of prevailing development practices and offer the greatest promise and potential for human well-being and planetary health.