Performance of one-dimensional hydrodynamic lake models during short-term extreme weather events

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Mesman, JP
Ayala, A
Adrian, R
De Eyto, E
Frassl, MA
Goyette, S
Kasparian, J
Perroud, M
Stelzer, JAA
Pierson, DC
Ibelings, BW
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2020
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Abstract

Numerical lake models are useful tools to study hydrodynamics in lakes, and are increasingly applied to extreme weather events. However, little is known about the accuracy of such models during these short-term events. We used high-frequency data from three lakes to test the performance of three one-dimensional (1D) hydrodynamic models (Simstrat, GOTM, GLM) during storms and heatwaves. Models reproduced the overall direction and magnitude of changes during the extreme events, with accurate timing and little bias. Changes in volume-averaged and surface temperatures and Schmidt stability were simulated more accurately than changes in bottom temperature, maximum buoyancy frequency, or mixed layer depth. However, in most cases the model error was higher (30–100%) during extreme events compared to reference periods. As a consequence, while 1D lake models can be used to study effects of extreme weather events, the increased uncertainty in the simulations should be taken into account when interpreting results.

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Environmental Modelling & Software

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133

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© 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

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Environmental engineering

Science & Technology

Life Sciences & Biomedicine

Computer Science, Interdisciplinary Applications

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Mesman, JP; Ayala, A; Adrian, R; De Eyto, E; Frassl, MA; Goyette, S; Kasparian, J; Perroud, M; Stelzer, JAA; Pierson, DC; Ibelings, BW, Performance of one-dimensional hydrodynamic lake models during short-term extreme weather events, Environmental Modelling & Software, 2020, 133

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