Next-generation ensemble projections reveal higher climate risks for marine ecosystems
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Novaglio, Camilla
Harrison, Cheryl S
Heneghan, Ryan F
Barrier, Nicolas
Bianchi, Daniele
Bopp, Laurent
Bryndum-Buchholz, Andrea
Britten, Gregory L
Buchner, Matthias
Cheung, William WL
Christensen, Villy
Coll, Marta
Dunne, John P
Eddy, Tyler D
et al.
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Projections of climate change impacts on marine ecosystems have revealed long-term declines in global marine animal biomass and unevenly distributed impacts on fisheries. Here we apply an enhanced suite of global marine ecosystem models from the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (Fish-MIP), forced by new-generation Earth system model outputs from Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), to provide insights into how projected climate change will affect future ocean ecosystems. Compared with the previous generation CMIP5-forced Fish-MIP ensemble, the new ensemble ecosystem simulations show a greater decline in mean global ocean animal biomass under both strong-mitigation and high-emissions scenarios due to elevated warming, despite greater uncertainty in net primary production in the high-emissions scenario. Regional shifts in the direction of biomass changes highlight the continued and urgent need to reduce uncertainty in the projected responses of marine ecosystems to climate change to help support adaptation planning.
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Nature Climate Change
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11
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11
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© The Author(s) 2021. This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.
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Atmospheric sciences
Physical geography and environmental geoscience
Other environmental sciences
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Life Sciences & Biomedicine
Physical Sciences
Environmental Sciences
Environmental Studies
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Tittensor, DP; Novaglio, C; Harrison, CS; Heneghan, RF; Barrier, N; Bianchi, D; Bopp, L; Bryndum-Buchholz, A; Britten, GL; Buchner, M; Cheung, WWL; Christensen, V; Coll, M; Dunne, JP; Eddy, TD; Everett, JD; Fernandes-Salvador, JA; Fulton, EA; Galbraith, ED; Gascuel, D; Guiet, J; John, JG; Link, JS; Lotze, HK; Maury, O; Ortega-Cisneros, K; Palacios-Abrantes, J; Petrik, CM; du Pontavice, H; Rault, J; Richardson, AJ; Shannon, L; Shin, Y-J; Steenbeek, J; Stock, CA; Blanchard, JL, Next-generation ensemble projections reveal higher climate risks for marine ecosystems, Nature Climate Change, 2021, 11 (11), pp. 973-981