Estimating the effects of global oil market shocks on Australian merchandise trade

Loading...
Thumbnail Image
File version

Accepted Manuscript (AM)

Author(s)
Sotoudeh, M-Ali
Worthington, Andrew C
Griffith University Author(s)
Primary Supervisor
Other Supervisors
Editor(s)
Date
2016
Size
File type(s)
Location
Abstract

In this paper, we examine the dynamic responses of Australian merchandise trade to global oil market structural shocks. The analysis employs monthly data over the period June 1986 to January 2013 and vector generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (VGARCH), structural vector autoregression (SVAR), and parametric nonlinear models. We find that an increase in the oil price driven by shocks in global economic activity exerts a significant influence on Australian merchandise exports, and thereby merchandise trade as a whole, for periods of more than one year. However, the responses of merchandise imports to oil price shocks are more modest and persist for only a few months. Finally, uncertainty in future global oil prices, as measured by volatility in the 3-month-ahead price, strongly and negatively affects Australian international commodity markets.

Journal Title

Economic Analysis and Policy

Conference Title
Book Title
Edition
Volume

50

Issue
Thesis Type
Degree Program
School
Publisher link
Patent number
Funder(s)
Grant identifier(s)
Rights Statement
Rights Statement

© 2016 Economic Society of Australia, Queensland. Published by Elsevier. Licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International Licence (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/) which permits unrestricted, non-commercial use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, providing that the work is properly cited.

Item Access Status
Note
Access the data
Related item(s)
Subject

Applied economics

Economics

International economics

Persistent link to this record
Citation
Collections