Estimating the effects of global oil market shocks on Australian merchandise trade
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Worthington, Andrew C
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In this paper, we examine the dynamic responses of Australian merchandise trade to global oil market structural shocks. The analysis employs monthly data over the period June 1986 to January 2013 and vector generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (VGARCH), structural vector autoregression (SVAR), and parametric nonlinear models. We find that an increase in the oil price driven by shocks in global economic activity exerts a significant influence on Australian merchandise exports, and thereby merchandise trade as a whole, for periods of more than one year. However, the responses of merchandise imports to oil price shocks are more modest and persist for only a few months. Finally, uncertainty in future global oil prices, as measured by volatility in the 3-month-ahead price, strongly and negatively affects Australian international commodity markets.
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Economic Analysis and Policy
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50
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© 2016 Economic Society of Australia, Queensland. Published by Elsevier. Licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International Licence (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/) which permits unrestricted, non-commercial use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, providing that the work is properly cited.
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Applied economics
Economics
International economics