The Impact of Prediction Errors in the Domestic Peak Power Demand Management

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Mahmud, Khizir
Ravishankar, Jayashri
Hossain, MJ
Dong, Zhao Yang
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2020
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Abstract

In this article, the impact of prediction errors on the performance of a domestic power demand management is thoroughly investigated. Initially, real-time peak power demand management system using battery energy storage systems (BESSs), electric vehicles (EVs), and photovoltaics (PV) systems is designed and modeled. The model uses real-time load demand of consumers and their roof-top PV power generation capability, and the charging-discharging constraints of BESSs and EVs to provide a coordinated response for peak power demand management. Afterward, this real-time power demand management system is modeled using autoregressive moving average and artificial neural networks-based prediction techniques. The predicted values are used to provide a day-ahead peak power demand management decision. However, any significant error in the prediction process results in an incorrect energy sharing by the energy management system. In this research, two different customers connected to a real-power distribution network with realistic load pattern and uncertainty are used to investigate the impact of this prediction error on the efficacy of an energy management system. The study shows that in some cases the prediction error can be more than 300%. The average capacity of energy support due to this prediction error can go up to 0.9 kWh, which increases battery charging-discharging cycles, hence reducing battery life and increasing energy cost. It also investigates a possible relationship between environmental conditions (solar insolation, temperature, and humidity) and consumers' power demand. Considering the weather conditions, a day-ahead uncertainty detection technique is proposed for providing an improved power demand management.

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IEEE Transactions on Industrial Informatics

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16

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7

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Mahmud, K; Ravishankar, J; Hossain, MJ; Dong, ZY, The Impact of Prediction Errors in the Domestic Peak Power Demand Management, IEEE Transactions on Industrial Informatics, 2020, 16 (7), pp. 4567-4579

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