Speculative pressure

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Fan, John Hua
Fernandez-Perez, Adrian
Fuertes, Ana-Maria
Miffre, Joelle
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2019
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Abstract

The paper investigates the information content of speculative pressure across futures classes. Long‐short portfolios of futures contracts sorted by speculative pressure capture a significant premium in commodity, currency, and equity markets but not in fixed income markets. Exposure to commodity, currency, and equity index futures’ speculative pressure is priced in the broad cross‐section after controlling for momentum, carry, global liquidity, and volatility risks. The findings are confirmed by robustness tests using alternative speculative pressure signals, portfolio construction techniques, and subperiods interalia. We argue that there is an efficient hedgers‐speculators risk transfer in commodity, currency, and equity index futures markets.

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Journal of Futures Markets

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© 2019 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. This is the peer reviewed version of the following article: Speculative pressure, The Journal of Futures Markets, 2019, which has been published in final form at https://doi.org/10.1002/fut.22085. This article may be used for non-commercial purposes in accordance with Wiley Terms and Conditions for Self-Archiving (http://olabout.wiley.com/WileyCDA/Section/id-828039.html)

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Banking, finance and investment

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Fan, JH; Fernandez‐Perez, A; Fuertes, A; Miffre, J, Speculative pressure, Journal of Futures Markets

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