Potential impacts of climate change on agriculture and fisheries production in 72 tropical coastal communities
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Caldwell, Iain R
Thiault, Lauric
Ben, John
Blanchard, Julia L
Coll, Marta
Diedrich, Amy
Eddy, Tyler D
Everett, Jason D
Folberth, Christian
Gascuel, Didier
Guiet, Jerome
Gurney, Georgina G
Heneghan, Ryan F
Jägermeyr, Jonas
et al.
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Abstract
Climate change is expected to profoundly affect key food production sectors, including fisheries and agriculture. However, the potential impacts of climate change on these sectors are rarely considered jointly, especially below national scales, which can mask substantial variability in how communities will be affected. Here, we combine socioeconomic surveys of 3,008 households and intersectoral multi-model simulation outputs to conduct a sub-national analysis of the potential impacts of climate change on fisheries and agriculture in 72 coastal communities across five Indo-Pacific countries (Indonesia, Madagascar, Papua New Guinea, Philippines, and Tanzania). Our study reveals three key findings: First, overall potential losses to fisheries are higher than potential losses to agriculture. Second, while most locations (> 2/3) will experience potential losses to both fisheries and agriculture simultaneously, climate change mitigation could reduce the proportion of places facing that double burden. Third, potential impacts are more likely in communities with lower socioeconomic status.
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Nature Communications
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13
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© The Author(s) 2022. This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.
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Climate change impacts and adaptation
Environmental management
Fisheries sciences
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Cinner, JE; Caldwell, IR; Thiault, L; Ben, J; Blanchard, JL; Coll, M; Diedrich, A; Eddy, TD; Everett, JD; Folberth, C; Gascuel, D; Guiet, J; Gurney, GG; Heneghan, RF; Jägermeyr, J; et al., Potential impacts of climate change on agriculture and fisheries production in 72 tropical coastal communities, Nature Communications, 2022, 13 (1), pp. 3530