Managing Impacts of Tropical Cyclone Storm Surge with a New Decision Support Framework

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Strauss, D
Faivre, G
Aldridge, J
Tomlinson, R
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2023
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Sunshine Coast, QLD, Australia

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Abstract

Storm surge presents the greatest risk to life in a tropical cyclone, however its forecast is complicated by the high degree of uncertainty in both the forecast cyclone track and the sensitivity in storm surge magnitude to local bathymetry, cyclone track characteristics such as orientation to the coastline and intensity, as well as the dynamic timing with the astronomical tide. Presently, storm surge warnings in Australia are delivered to the public via text warnings and to emergency managers as a range of depths at the coastline. There is a need to enhance the storm surge warnings into a decision-making tool giving an indication of areas likely to be inundated. The SurgeImpact project, funded by the Queensland Reconstruction Authority, is a collaboration of Griffith University, Queensland Fire and Emergency Services, Geoscience Australia, Department of Environment and Science, Queensland, LGAQ and the Bureau of Meteorology. This project aims to develop an updated high resolution probabilistic storm surge inundation decision support tool. This product is intended for use by emergency managers in guiding evacuation decisions, planning of options for evacuation routes, and will upgrade existing capability by extending into inundation modelling. It presents a novel probabilistic methodology taking the range of forecast cyclone tracks and their degree of uncertainty and generating the probabilistic hazard inundation surface at various points in time in the forecast as a cyclone approaches the coastline using multiple simulations on high performance computing. Further, impacts will be displayed leveraging Geoscience Australia's HazImp platform, to communicate the extent of storm tide inundation.

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Australasian Coasts and Ports 2023 Conference

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Engineering

Public policy

Ocean engineering

Climate change impacts and adaptation

Maritime engineering

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Strauss, D; Faivre, G; Aldridge, J; Tomlinson, R, Managing Impacts of Tropical Cyclone Storm Surge with a New Decision Support Framework, Australasian Coasts and Ports 2023 Conference, 2023, pp. 301-306