Limiting global average warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius (1.5°C) by 2100 necessitates a rapid transformation of global economic and social systems that will leave no country unaffected. For Australia, the need to become more resilient to the physical impacts of climate change is accompanied by the opportunity to grow new and existing industries to provide essential goods and services for decarbonising economies.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) provides an authoritative global analysis of technological, energy, and investment needs for 1.5°C, but the IEA does not identify Australia’s decarbonisation separately in their model. This analysis develops two potential future scenarios explicitly contextualised to an Australian setting:

CSIRO rapid decarbonisation based on a rapid but plausible decarbonisation pathway to net zero for Australia aligned with the IEA’s NZE global 1.5°C carbon budget. CSIRO stated policies based on stated policies internationally and within Australia, which projects a 2.6°C temperature increase by 2100. These scenarios are developed to translate the IEA’s widely referenced global scenarios (Net Zero Emissions by 2050) and Stated Policies to an Australian context. It aims to help Australian industry, financial institutions, and governments facilitate the transition to net zero emissions by 2050. Consistent with the IEA’s approach, we do not model the impacts of chronic or acute physical risks of climate change.