Detecting, Attributing, and Projecting Global Marine Ecosystem and Fisheries Change: FishMIP 2.0
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Novaglio, Camilla
Maury, Olivier
Harrison, Cheryl S
Petrik, Colleen M
Fierro-Arcos, Denisse
Ortega-Cisneros, Kelly
Bryndum-Buchholz, Andrea
Eddy, Tyler D
Heneghan, Ryan
Roberts, Kelsey
Schewe, Jacob
Bianchi, Daniele
Guiet, Jerome
van Denderen, P Daniel
et al.
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Abstract
There is an urgent need for models that can robustly detect past and project future ecosystem changes and risks to the services that they provide to people. The Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (FishMIP) was established to develop model ensembles for projecting long-term impacts of climate change on fisheries and marine ecosystems while informing policy at spatio-temporal scales relevant to the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) framework. While contributing FishMIP models have improved over time, large uncertainties in projections remain, particularly in coastal and shelf seas where most of the world's fisheries occur. Furthermore, previous FishMIP climate impact projections have been limited by a lack of global standardized historical fishing data, low resolution of coastal processes, and uneven capabilities across the FishMIP community to dynamically model fisheries. These features are needed to evaluate how reliably the FishMIP ensemble captures past ecosystem states - a crucial step for building confidence in future projections. To address these issues, we have developed FishMIP 2.0 comprising a two-track framework for: (a) Model evaluation and attribution of past changes and (b) future climate and socioeconomic scenario projections. Key advances include improved historical climate forcing, which captures oceanographic features not previously resolved, and standardized global fishing forcing to test fishing effects systematically across models. FishMIP 2.0 is a crucial step toward a detection and attribution framework for changing marine ecosystems and toward enhanced policy relevance through increased confidence in future ensemble projections. Our results will help elucidate pathways toward achieving sustainable development goals.
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Earth's Future
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12
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12
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© 2024 Commonwealth of Australia and The Author(s). Earth's Future published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American Geophysical Union. This article has been contributed to by U.S. Government employees and their work is in the public domain in the USA. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
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Fisheries sciences
Marine and estuarine ecology (incl. marine ichthyology)
Climate change science
Hydrology
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Blanchard, JL; Novaglio, C; Maury, O; Harrison, CS; Petrik, CM; Fierro-Arcos, D; Ortega-Cisneros, K; Bryndum-Buchholz, A; Eddy, TD; Heneghan, R; Roberts, K; Schewe, J; Bianchi, D; Guiet, J; van Denderen, PD; et al., Detecting, Attributing, and Projecting Global Marine Ecosystem and Fisheries Change: FishMIP 2.0, Earth's Future, 2024, 12 (12)