Mapping Environmental Suitability of Scrub Typhus in Nepal Using MaxEnt and Random Forest Models

Loading...
Thumbnail Image
File version

Version of Record (VoR)

Author(s)
Acharya, Bipin Kumar
Chen, Wei
Ruan, Zengliang
Pant, Gobind Prasad
Yang, Yin
Shah, Lalan Prasad
Cao, Chunxiang
Xu, Zhiwei
Dhimal, Meghnath
Lin, Hualiang
Griffith University Author(s)
Primary Supervisor
Other Supervisors
Editor(s)
Date
2019
Size
File type(s)
Location
Abstract

Being a globally emerging mite-borne zoonotic disease, scrub typhus is a serious public health concern in Nepal. Mapping environmental suitability and quantifying the human population under risk of the disease is important for prevention and control efforts. In this study, we model and map the environmental suitability of scrub typhus using the ecological niche approach, machine learning modeling techniques, and report locations of scrub typhus along with several climatic, topographic, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), and proximity explanatory variables and estimated population under the risk of disease at a national level. Both MaxEnt and RF technique results reveal robust predictive power with test The area under curve (AUC) and true skill statistics (TSS) of above 0.8 and 0.6, respectively. Spatial prediction reveals that environmentally suitable areas of scrub typhus are widely distributed across the country particularly in the low-land Tarai and less elevated river valleys. We found that areas close to agricultural land with gentle slopes have higher suitability of scrub typhus occurrence. Despite several speculations on the association between scrub typhus and proximity to earthquake epicenters, we did not find a significant role of proximity to earthquake epicenters in the distribution of scrub typhus in Nepal. About 43% of the population living in highly suitable areas for scrub typhus are at higher risk of infection, followed by 29% living in suitable areas of moderate-risk, and about 22% living in moderately suitable areas of lower risk. These findings could be useful in selecting priority areas for surveillance and control strategies effectively.

Journal Title

International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health

Conference Title
Book Title
Edition
Volume

16

Issue

23

Thesis Type
Degree Program
School
Publisher link
Patent number
Funder(s)
Grant identifier(s)
Rights Statement
Rights Statement

© 2019 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).

Item Access Status
Note
Access the data
Related item(s)
Subject

Infectious diseases

Disease surveillance

Epidemiology

Science & Technology

Life Sciences & Biomedicine

Environmental Sciences

Public, Environmental & Occupational Health

Environmental Sciences & Ecology

Persistent link to this record
Citation

Acharya, BK; Chen, W; Ruan, Z; Pant, GP; Yang, Y; Shah, LP; Cao, C; Xu, Z; Dhimal, M; Lin, H, Mapping Environmental Suitability of Scrub Typhus in Nepal Using MaxEnt and Random Forest Models, International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 2019, 16 (23), pp. 4845

Collections