Complexity provides a better explanation than probability for confidence in syllogistic inferences
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Abstract
Bayesian rationality is an important contribution to syllogistic inference, but it has limitations. The claim that confidence in a conclusion is a function of informativeness of the max-premise is anomalous because this is the least probable premise. A more plausible account is that confidence is inversely related to complexity. Bayesian rationality should be supplemented with principles based on cognitive complexity.
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Behavioral and Brain Sciences
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32
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1
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© 2009 Cambridge University Press. The attached file is reproduced here in accordance with the copyright policy of the publisher. Please refer to the journal's website for access to the definitive, published version.
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Probability theory
Neurosciences
Cognitive and computational psychology