Spatial dynamics of pathogen transmission in communally roosting species: impacts of changing habitats on bat-virus dynamics.
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Peel, Alison J
McCallum, Hamish
Eby, Peggy
Kessler, Maureen K
Plowright, Raina K
Restif, Olivier
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Abstract
The spatial organisation of populations determines their pathogen dynamics. This is particularly important for communally roosting species, whose aggregations are often driven by the spatial structure of their environment. We develop a spatially explicit model for virus transmission within roosts of Australian tree-dwelling bats (Pteropus spp.), parameterised to reflect Hendra virus. The spatial structure of roosts mirrors three study sites, and viral transmission between groups of bats in trees was modelled as a function of distance between roost trees. Using three levels of tree density to reflect anthropogenic changes in bats habitats, we investigate the potential effects of recent ecological shifts in Australia on the dynamics of zoonotic viruses in reservoir hosts. We show that simulated infection dynamics in spatially structured roosts differ from that of mean-field models for equivalently sized populations, highlighting the importance of spatial structure in disease models of gregarious taxa. Under contrasting scenarios of flying-fox roosting structures, sparse stand structures (with fewer trees but more bats per tree) generate higher probabilities of successful outbreaks, larger and faster epidemics, and shorter virus extinction times, compared to intermediate and dense stand structures with more trees but fewer bats per tree. These observations are consistent with the greater force of infection generated by structured populations with less numerous but larger infected groups, and may flag an increased risk of pathogen spillover from these increasingly abundant roost types. Outputs from our models contribute insights into the spread of viruses in structured animal populations, like communally roosting species, as well as specific insights into Hendra virus infection dynamics and spillover risk in a situation of changing host ecology. These insights will be relevant for modelling other zoonotic viruses in wildlife reservoir hosts in response to habitat modification and changing populations, including coronaviruses like SARS-CoV-2.
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Journal of Animal Ecology
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© 2021 British Ecological Society. This is the pre-peer reviewed version of the following article: Spatial dynamics of pathogen transmission in communally roosting species: impacts of changing habitats on bat-virus dynamics, Journal of Animal Ecology, 2021, which has been published in final form at https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2656.13566. This article may be used for non-commercial purposes in accordance with Wiley Terms and Conditions for Self-Archiving (http://olabout.wiley.com/WileyCDA/Section/id-828039.html)
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Subject
Environmental sciences
Biological sciences
Ecology
Agricultural, veterinary and food sciences
Zoology
Henipavirus
aggregative behaviour
animal aggregation
communal roost
conspecific attraction
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Citation
Lunn, TJ; Peel, AJ; McCallum, H; Eby, P; Kessler, MK; Plowright, RK; Restif, O, Spatial dynamics of pathogen transmission in communally roosting species: impacts of changing habitats on bat-virus dynamics, Journal of Animal Ecology, 2021