Temporal and spatial analysis of hand, foot, and mouth disease in relation to climate factors: A study in the Mekong Delta region, Vietnam
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Chu, Cordia
Huong, Lien Thi Nguyen
Ha, Thanh Nguyen
Cuong, Manh Do
Rutherford, Shannon
Dung, Phung
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Abstract
This study examined the temporal and spatial patterns of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) in the Mekong Delta region in Vietnam. A time-series analysis was used to examine the temporal patterns of HFMD in relation to climate factors while a retrospective space-time scan was used to detect the high-risk space-time clusters of this disease. A 1 °C increase in average temperature was associated with 5.6% increase in HFMD rate at lag 5 days (95% CI 0.3–10.9). A 1% increase in humidity had equal influence of 1.7% increases on HFMD rate at both lag 3 days and 6 days (95% CI 0.7–2.7 and 95% CI 0.8–2.6, respectively). An increase in 1 unit of rainfall was associated with a 0.5% increase of HFMD rate on the lag 1 and 6 days (95% CI 0.2–0.9 and 95% CI 0.1–0.8, respectively). The predictive model indicated that the peak of HFMD was from October to December - the rainy season in the Mekong Delta region. Most high-risk clusters were located in areas with high population density and close to transport routes. The findings suggest that HFMD is influenced by climate factors and is likely to increase in the future due to climate change related weather events.
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Science of the Total Environment
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581-582
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© 2017 Elsevier. Licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/) which permits unrestricted, non-commercial use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, providing that the work is properly cited.
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Other environmental sciences not elsewhere classified