Forecasting Daily Electricity Price by Hybrid Model of Fractional Wavelet Transform, Feature Selection, Support Vector Machine and Optimization Algorithm

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Syah, Rahmad
Davarpanah, Afshin
Elveny, Marischa
Karmaker, Ashish Kumar
Nasution, Mahyuddin
Hossain, Md Alamgir
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2021
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Abstract

This paper proposes a novel hybrid forecasting model with three main parts to accurately forecast daily electricity prices. In the first part, where data are divided into high- and low-frequency data using the fractional wavelet transform, the best data with the highest relevancy are selected, using a feature selection algorithm. The second part is based on a nonlinear support vector network and auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) method for better training the previous values of electricity prices. The third part optimally adjusts the proposed support vector machine parameters with an error-base objective function, using the improved grey wolf and particle swarm optimization. The proposed method is applied to forecast electricity markets, and the results obtained are analyzed with the help of the criteria based on the forecast errors. The results demonstrate the high accuracy in the MAPE index of forecasting the electricity price, which is about 91% as compared to other forecasting methods.

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Electronics

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10

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18

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© 2021 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https:// creativecommons.org/licenses/by/ 4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

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Electrical engineering

Applied economics

Economic models and forecasting

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Syah, R; Davarpanah, A; Elveny, M; Karmaker, AK; Nasution, M; Hossain, MA, Forecasting Daily Electricity Price by Hybrid Model of Fractional Wavelet Transform, Feature Selection, Support Vector Machine and Optimization Algorithm, Electronics, 10 (18), pp. 2214

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