2015-08: Forecasting the volatility of the Japanese stock market using after-hour information in other markets (Working paper)
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Todorova, Neda
Li, Bin
Su, Jen-Je
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Neupane, Suman
Roca, Eduardo
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10 pages
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Abstract
Our study aims to evaluate whether it is blessed to be the land of the rising sun in terms of forecasting stock volatility using the realized volatilities of related assets from other markets where the intraday data is available while the Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE) is closed. Since markets generally do not trade during the overnight period, volatility cannot be estimated on a high frequency basis for the non-trading period. We use the heterogeneous autoregressive (HAR) model to identify an optimal way to include this additional information for 10 TSE listed stocks using rolling estimation criteria. To cater for the after hour global information, we use MSCI world real time index (MSCI), US Dollar Index (DXY), Dow Jones Industrial Average Index (DJI) and to account for the after hour neighbour-market information, we use MSCI Pacific index (MSCIPC), Hangseng Index (HIS) and Shanghai Composite Index (SSECI). The empirical analysis confirms the potential of using global and neighbour-market information in forecasting equity volatility of the TSE.
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Copyright © 2010 by author(s). No part of this paper may be reproduced in any form, or stored in a retrieval system, without prior permission of the author(s).
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Subject
High Frequency
Realized Volatility
Overnight volatility
Forecasting