Iran 1998-2008: Insight on the containment of Risk
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McLoughlin S.
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Abstract
In the decade from 1998 to 2008, Iran experienced a period of continued political contestation and upheaval. During this period there were a number of political events that challenged the authority of Iranian regime (1999 student protests, Afghanistan and Iraq border conflicts, and the 2005 Presidential election). This chapter explores why two particular events, the 1999 student protests and the post-Iraq post-2005 Presidential election, did not 'trigger' a situation where the Iranian state engaged in mass atrocities to (re)assert regime stability. The use of violence to quell political opposition is a rational choice that many regimes engage in, with immediate and resounding success. However, the Iranian regime - despite consistently identified as having a high risk of genocide - has appeared reluctant to publicly sanction police and army to carry out mass atrocities. This chapter contends that the fragmented but hierarchical political system provides a delicate power balance that, for now, provides greater benefit for political and security sector in maintaining the status quo and avoiding bloody confrontation with Iranian citizens.
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Mass Atrocities, Risk and Resilience
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International Relations